The President of Turkey, Recep Erdoğan, is continuing his active foreign policy in all directions. Sometimes he is a staunch leader of the ‘authoritarian international,’ sometimes he is a loyal ally of the democratic West when it comes to defending Ukraine, and sometimes he is a trusted and dear friend of Russia when the same West points its finger at Moscow. But Moscow intends to turn Erdogan into a hedgehog and throw him into the West’s pants. In addition, sometimes he is the “father” of the Turks of the world, and sometimes the “number one defender of the Muslims” in the world. In order to defend its own interests in the face of fast rearrangements in international relations, Erdogan’s Turkey is simply doomed to act from a position of strength and use all its advantages not only to keep its “Jokers” in its hands, but also to decide for itself what color its “Jokers” are and what characters it will have. And when these Turkish poker players play at different tables at the same time, Erdogan raises the stakes, “taking the bank” to separate tables and losing in separate ones, but it is so clear that the general “balance” is still in his favor because he understands the opponents very well: the weaknesses of one, the fears of the other, the ambition of the third, the stupidity of the fourth, and the greed of the fifth.
Erdogan is causing problems for the return of Armenian prisoners of war from Azerbaijan, and the Russians not only enjoy that, but they also turn the arrows against the Armenian leadership and engage in petty lies. Erdogan sends signals to Brussels to “warm up” relations with the European Union by making Charles Michel and Ursula von der Leyen “run” to Ankara, but he leaves von der Leyen without a place to sit, and Europe also “eats” that up. Von der Leyen “calmly” sat on the chair on the other side of the room, and Charles Michel does not even think to give up his spot as a gentleman to the President of the European Commission, not to mention his manly riot… what resulted was a disgrace. And here, taking advantage of the escalation of the situation between Ukraine and Russia, which has significantly angered Washington in the first place, Erdogan is simply mocking Putin. The point is that Ukraine, in the face of a real threat of Russian invasion, is feverishly increasing its military capabilities to reduce the likelihood of such a prospect, but apart from Washington and its unique allies in Central Europe, Europe is not particularly willing to support Kiev. In fact, Josep Borrell’s scandal in Moscow turned out to be very symbolic… And here, Erdogan appeared with his clear position toward Ukraine, which is not rhetorically inferior to Washington, and it happened after a telephone conversation with Putin. And Putin is mocked by the statement that “Ukrainian-Turkish cooperation is not directed toward third countries.”
One of the most insightful Russian political scientists, Andrei Piontkovsky, tweeted in this regard. “Cynical and accountable Erdogan would never have dared to make ‘anti-Russian’ statements today if he did not know for sure that Putin ‘is already balanced and very light.’”
By the way, the Putin-Erdogan telephone conversation did not take place at Ankara’s initiative. It took place after the Putin-Pashinyan meeting in Moscow and the Putin-Aliyev telephone conversation when it became clear that “Muradov’s plane” arrived in Yerevan from Baku without any Armenian prisoners of war. Erdogan, who does “not have any external problems,” enjoys the tactical success of Turkish poker in his “backyard” and close neighborhood, but it cannot continue indefinitely, even based on political patterns. And he has problems, and quite a lot. The “free fall” of the Turkish lira will limit many initiatives, and Erdogan might not be able to take care of the expenses. And Washington’s intolerance towards those double Turkish “tricks” is already being displayed via sanctions. Russian S-400s are becoming an insurmountable obstacle for Turkey to avoid further US sanctions. It is noteworthy that these sanctions are provided by a law called CAATSA – “Act on sanctions against American opponents through sanctions.” In other words, Turkey, in fact, can be declared an “opponent of America”… it is fundamental for Armenian diplomacy that, in theory, the “Armenian” trump card is not the only one for Washington, and if it intends to punish Ankara, then not for “Armenian issues.” In fact, experience shows that this can not be the case in principle, because Turkey is very important for the United States, and the “calm” atmosphere on Armenian issues is important, so Washington’s assessments are not seen as a mere dictation of the moment. Official Yerevan finally realized that the Moscow-Baku-Ankara “brotherly triangle” was simply mocking the Armenians, and Moscow would “not be able” to resolve the issue of the captives until Yerevan turned to other addresses, the first of which was Washington. The remarkable article by Armenian Ambassador to the United States Varuzhan Nersisyan in DefenseOne, a newspaper close to the Pentagon, contains a direct text calling on Washington to intervene in the issue of Armenian prisoners of war. The Russians are very nervous seeing that the Armenians see and understand everything, and “it will not work as before;” the Armenians will be forced to respect their interests. And it is very important to show the Armenians that the Armenian policy is decided in Yerevan and not in the cabinets of Putin or his relatives. The Russians’ attempt to snatch something from Turkish poker, even at the expense of their own interests, will definitely not lead to anything good, especially when the cards are “fake” and the “joker” is Erdogan, while Putin has no chance to have “joker.” Although everyone understands everything, and the hatchet understands the hatchet best, all that remains is not to hit your own foot with the hatchet.
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Ruben Mehrabyan
