After a long hiatus, the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs decided to issue a statement on April 13th.
It is obvious that the three co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group would not have issued a statement if the three sides would not have gained anything from it. America’s benefit is superficial. In the South Caucasus, Russia and Turkey created a ‘formula’ to mix, which is simply unacceptable for America, and it is necessary to change the situation. In addition, the attitude of the US administration towards authoritarian regimes, separately from Russia and Turkey, as well as Azerbaijan, is also unequivocal. The United States intends to return to the region, and this has been spoken about openly, not only in the press. A new package of sanctions has been imposed to curb Russia’s malicious activities, and America’s goal with Turkey is to bring Ankara, according to Victoria Nuland, “On the same page as the United States in Syria, Libya, and Nagorno-Karabakh.” France has its problems with Turkey, and this confrontation extends to France’s interior, where pseudo-Islamist organizations directly fed by Turkey are building a network of influence. The elements of this network are already a threat to the internal security of France, and it is not difficult to predict what evil they will turn into after consolidation. And in the Mediterranean, Turkey’s aspirations against Greece are also a challenge for France. And Paris’ interest is also understandable: to restrain Turkey where it is appropriate, in this case, in the South Caucasus, where at the same time with the inability and permissibility of Russia, the Turkish presence has become a reality.
The most ambiguous in this case is Russia’s interest. “And you want it, and it pierces, and Mother does not allow it.” The Armenian people must once again “thank” the Russian chauvinist, “Kremlin’s subconscious” Dugin for playing open cards and calling things by name. “Russia has done its job, now it’s Baku’s turn,” Dugin said, who is not a conventional “pro-Soros” individual that is Russia’s nightmare, or an Armenian “Russophobe” who, say, drives a wedge into the “centuries-old Armenian-Russian friendship” among other things. Moreover, Dugin demands in an open text from Baku that as “compensation” for the “restoration of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity” and “Russia’s efforts,” Aliyev must “take into custody” the Russian “integration resolutions” in his country: the CSTO and EAEU.
That is on the one hand. On the other hand, in the conditions of the obvious increase in confrontations in Russian-Turkish relations, Moscow will try to balance the situation in the region. The emptiness of Muradov’s plane on the route from Baku to Yerevan was conditioned at least by Ankara’s urging, which forced Putin to call Erdogan and then, for reasons related to Ukraine, to “deprive” Turkey of Russian tourists. However, it is clear that this will hardly change Turkey’s approaches. After all, according to the “notions” of the current Russian elite, Erdogan is also “unique,” the same “lazy boy” in contrast to the “disrespectful” and “naive” West, and therefore, a “real boy” who will only be restrained by “real steps.”
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The former deputy foreign minister of Russia, Grigory Karasin, was the first to speak about the need to activate the OSCE Minsk Group a few days before the co-chairs’ statement, and before that, Russian diplomats were completely silent. He was silent even in light of the fact that Moscow “cannot solve” the issue of Armenian prisoners of war, and the Russian peacekeepers simply prevent journalists and representatives of international organizations from entering Artsakh.
It is now obvious that the Russians can stay under their own “trick,” as in wrestling. No country has made such an effort to disrupt the international positions of Armenia and Artsakh since 2008 and to violate the status quo in the region to the detriment of Armenians as Russia. The Meiendorf Declaration, which was simply “hung” onto Serzh Sargsyan, the multibillion dollar supply of offensive weapons to Azerbaijan, the continuous pressure on Yerevan apparently provoked by Moscow, the April 2016 Four-Day War, and later, the continuous pressure on Yerevan in the Lavrov Plan and the active abortion of the Vienna agreements show the incomplete arsenal of Moscow’s “merits,” which was in Moscow’s “assets” before the 44-Day War…
Yes, Sultan Recep can also “shake with a knife before his eyes.” He has good “teachers” in Moscow. Therefore, we need effective means so that the case does not suddenly reach a direct confrontation. The humble speech of the Russian ambassador in Ankara on the occasion of the centenary of the Moscow Treaty did not “convince” the sultan either. They see Moscow’s concerns in the West and meet Moscow’s sudden “constructiveness.” However, signals and statements alone are not enough. Moscow, of course, as Dugin admits, has done its job, but Moscow also has something else to do. After all, the Karabakh issue has not been resolved, no matter how much Aliyev repeats that it has like a parrot every three days, the final status of Artsakh has not yet been decided, and the November 9th statement is just a statement and nothing more, no matter how much the Russians try to resolve the issue of unblocking communication in the region in a trilateral format, even with their own “inability” to solve the issue of prisoners of war.
We also have work to do. The American diplomacy has put a proposal into circulation, which is stated in the article by the former US Permanent Representative to the OSCE in the Foreign Affairs periodical. Daniel Baer suggests four steps, the most important of which is that the November 9th statement was necessary. First, the ceasefire must be strengthened, all parties must be reaffirmed by the UN Security Council resolution, and the Russians must welcome that.
This is not all that Daniel Baer said, and this is not all that is in the American diplomatic arsenal. This is also also not all that can be considered a priori in Armenia’s interests. However, this can be a serious basis for the Armenian parties to be able to “accommodate” their priorities. In particular, in the coming days, Victoria Nuland, the de facto architect of the Vienna Accords in 2016, will take office as the Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs…
Yerevan has “homework” to do, which must be done brilliantly. First, it is the snap elections, which will lead to the formation of a new, legitimate government, which must define new visions for itself within the scope of the new realities. In any case, one thing is clear: one-sided dependence on Russia’s goodwill is an absolute evil, and balancing this vicious situation in all respects is an absolute priority. Prime Minister Pashinyan is trying to explain to the public that, yes, Russia is our “ally,” but it is not the enemy of Azerbaijan and Turkey. Well, we have not fallen into the hands of that “friendship,” and the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs are not our enemies either, no matter how much, say, Dugin is shaken by that fact, and let everyone go to hell with their “stronger integration” or “united state.” And who said that we are the enemies of the other two Minsk Group co-chair nations? After all, sanctions against Russia do not and should not concern us in any way. We have our agenda, and what we need to do based on that is already ours.
Ruben Mehrabyan
“Aravot” daily
