The majority of citizens voted for Vazgen Manukyan in 1996, not because they loved that politician and his ideas, but because they had the extreme desire to get rid of Levon Ter-Petrossian. And, say, the majority of citizens voted for Stepan Demirchyan in 2003, not because of his unparalleled characteristics as a politician, but because they had a strong desire, or, I would even say, dream, to get rid of Robert Kocharyan. In 2018, people voted for Nikol Pashinyan not because they expected him to build a New Armenia, but because they saw him as a savior who was finally able to free the country of Serzh Sargsyan’s leadership. In all of these cases, as well as in many others, the majority of the electorate’s motivation was negative; they did not like, accept, or use something as a basis for the future. They just wanted to reject something hatefully.
Now, society is faced with a decision: whom to reject- Nikol Pashinyan or Robert Kocharyan? There are dozens of political parties that have the likelihood of becoming the “third force,” there are perhaps 10 or 20 thousand citizens (including myself) for whom those two candidates are equally unacceptable. None of that changes the reality: the main electorate is divided into two, perhaps equal sections- those who hate Kocharyan (the “former regime”) and those who hate Pashinyan. (Of course, someone needed to be particularly “talented” to eliminate the trust that was built in 2018 and become an object of hatred). This will not be a fight between supporters, but a fight between rejectors and haters.
Thus, the logic of the first group (the Nikol supporters) is as follows. “What happened over the past three years does not matter, nor do the human and territorial losses. What Pashinyan is planning over the next five years does not matter, either. What matters is that he was able to start a revolution, and now he is the person who is closing the former regime’s path to government. As long as Kocharyan doesn’t return, it doesn’t matter who comes to power.”
The logic of the opposite pole is as follows. “What happened during Kocharyan’s rule does not matter, nor do the creation of the criminal-oligarch system, the election rigging, pressure, or March 1st. What matters is that Kocharyan is the person who will free the country of an evil like Pashinyan. As long as Pashinyan leaves, it doesn’t matter who comes to power.” All of that can be said with different intonations, different vocabulary, and different supporting arguments. But it is clear that the election campaigns will be a hate race against the background of apathy, indifference, and demoralization of other citizens.
Read also
Since both of the main candidates are vindictive people who “finish what they started” and people who will never, ever make compromises, I doubt that the elections will be peaceful.
Aram Abrahamyan
