According to the most recent survey conducted by Gallup International, the My Step bloc is the winner in the election race, which will probably run as “Civil Contract,” as well as Robert Kocharyan’s Armenia bloc with 24.8% and 14.3% respectively. Pashinyan’s rating has fallen to some extent (it could not have been otherwise), but there is another remarkable circumstance. The Prosperous Armenia and Republic parties, which form a possible coalition with the government, also have a chance to be part of the parliament. At the same time, it seems that there is no need to “pull” Prosperous Armenia to parliament, but for Republic, the government will probably have to make some sort of effort.
Therefore, as of today, it will be difficult for Pashinyan’s party to gather 50 percent of the votes on its own (even if it persecutes the non-ruling party leaders of communities and other administrative methods), but it can form a coalition with “allied” political forces. That is the situation at the moment, in any case, which, of course, may change.
According to the poll, the number of citizens who are willing to participate in the elections is higher than those who say they will not participate, and this is certainly a positive phenomenon, otherwise, the issue of power will be solved by a minority of citizens. And the negative aspect is that, according to the same poll, there is a high percentage of citizens who refuse to express their preferences, or are undecided, or are against everyone. (Although there is no “against all” box in the Armenian elections; there are no boxes at all; you throw the ballot paper of your preferred political force in the ballot box). The over-representation of the undecided and “against all” groups means that people do not see the force of their choice among the candidates.
Of course, it is possible to not believe the Gallup polls. By the way, the supporters of the current government, who used to say that Gallup is carrying out the orders of the government as it always foresees a Republican victory, treat the polls now as the highest form of truth.
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However, besides numbers, there is also political logic that comes from the characteristics of the electorate. People are more likely to listen to tough, extreme evaluations; moderate criticism is not what they desire. For example, if someone who is against the current Prime Minister hears that Pashinyan is a failed statesman, that evaluation will not satisfy them; they will definitely want to hear the word “traitor.” And those who have negative opinions of Kocharyan will not want to hear milder criticism of the second president than “thief” and “murderer.” That is why those two forces are the favorites.
Aram Abrahamyan
