Let’s not discuss imaginary options and understand that there are two ways out of this election.
- The deepening of this uncontrollable situation and the dissolution of the work of state structure, which will quickly bring about new clashes and new losses,
- An attempt to restore the old system that existed before 2018, which will be a little slower, but will again lead to new clashes and new losses. In one case (if Pashinyan is reproduced) the process will take months, in another case (if Kocharyan comes to power) the same will happen in 1-1.5 years.
How can we avoid that? The technocratic and non-political government idea has been suggested. That can truly be a solution in this situation in order to calm people’s passions. But, unfortunately, that idea is not implementable. Pashinyan and Kocharyan do not wish to give power to someone else. They are struggling for power, and they want to use that power to destroy each other. It is impossible to reach stability with such leaders. But no political force besides these two has a chance of coming to power.
What is Pashinyan’s political transition? If we describe it in one word, it is a scandal; the current acting Prime Minister is skilled in scandals. In that situation, he feels like a fish in water, because it creates an opportunity to “shake,” “put people in their place” (it doesn’t matter who). Because of his character, he has damaged relations with the bureaucracy, diplomats, intellectuals, the military, the clergy, parties, and even part of his team. The results of that policy are right before our eyes. As a basis, those My Step members who try to “insult” the former regime using their boss’ vocabulary, as well as the electorate, which kisses hands and feet. It is a liquid foundation on which it is impossible to build a stable system.
If we were to describe Kocharyan’s political portrait in one word, it would be “repression.” During his rule, the second president tried to keep everyone in his fist, “regulating” everything according to his ideas, including who, when, and how much should be “paid.” The skinheads of the oligarchs also kicked people in a highly regulated manner. Wrongly greeting the President could have deadly consequences. It is practically impossible to restore that system. There will be resistance from a part of the same bureaucracy and intelligentsia, as well as from tens of thousands of other citizens.
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Therefore, in the case of both possible election results, I suggest being in a “turbulent” state for at least a few months.
Aram Abrahamyan
