Now, I do not think that anyone doubts that Pashinyan and Kocharyan, who will receive the most votes in the upcoming elections with close percentages, will announce on June 21st that they ‘won’ and will attempt to confirm those claims with rallies on the streets. Perhaps one of the sides will be able to form a coalition. It can also not be ruled out that this will not happen, and one of them will receive more votes in the second phase. But, regardless of everything, I believe that the losing side will not consider themselves to have lost, and they will bring their supporters (as well as criminals under their control) out to the streets and cause clashes. Therefore, over the next few months, these elections will not bring stability to the country regardless of the results.
In response to my predictions, people usually respond with, “Is everything so bad that there is no way out?” I see a way out in any case, but not right now. The period of stability will come after the inevitable clashes that will come as a result of the elections. What is the path on which that can happen, in my opinion? One of the pre-conditions, I believe, is that the four leaders of Armenia (after receiving immunity guarantees) will find the strength within themselves to take a step back and announce that they will not actively be involved in politics anymore, they will not take on any position or mandate, and they agree that a technocratic, non-partisan government will operate under the control of the current parliament.
During that transitional phase, over the next 1.5-2 years, a new constitution will be drafted (perhaps using a presidential or semi-presidential system, but with a powerful parliament), after which parliamentary and presidential elections will be held, which, naturally, the four leaders will not participate in. Until then, parliament will clarify the law regarding the immunity of the former leaders, which will rule out the new government’s revenge or retribution against them. Essentially, many people, including the first president and the current president, were suggesting something similar, but the main political forces believed (and, unfortunately, still believe) that they will come to power through elections, they will attack all their opponents, and the period of stability will come after. Unfortunately, they do not have adequate visions of reality.
But all of that is a problem for the future; more accurately, for the desirable future. At the moment, all of that seems like a fantasy. Pashinyan’s and Kocharyan’s working styles show that they are prepared to fight for power ‘until the end.’ But when that end comes about through civilian clashes, perhaps they will realize that the reasonable solution is to avoid final self-destruction and the loss of statehood.
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Aram Abrahamyan
