The foreign ministers of Russia and Turkey met in Antalya on Wednesday. Naturally, the South Caucasus was not the only topic of their discussion; Lavrov and Chavushoglu also spoke about Libya, Syria, and Afghanistan. In particular, a new phase of tension is beginning in Afghanistan, and that will definitely have an impact on CSTO member Tajikistan’s security. And, Turkey, as we know, always has interests in Asia and even in parts of Africa. All of those issues must be viewed as a whole because diplomacy, as we know, is a form of trade: you give something in order to receive something.
I believe that within the framework of these huge transactions, Turkey and Russia will “exchange” Syria and Artsakh, so to speak; the Turks conceded in the former, and Russians conceded in the latter. Thus, Lavrov expressed satisfaction with the Russian-Turkish monitoring center in Aghdam, and he noted that Erdogan’s visit to Shushi (according to the Russian Foreign Minister, Azerbaijan) is a matter of bilateral relations between the two countries. It is not that the provocative nature of that visit is not visible to an experienced diplomat like Lavrov, but he certainly had no desire to escalate the issue.
In other words, Russia has come to terms with the thought that Turkey is present in the South Caucasus in this manner (including with the military ingredient). Lavrov also praised Aliyev’s and Erdogan’s idea to create a “3 + 3” platform, which will involve the three republics of the South Caucasus, Iran, Russia and Turkey. This format, if it is called to replace the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs in some issues, at least at first glance, is not very favorable for us – three “neutral” countries and two enemies. In any case, as far as I know, the proposal did not receive a clear response from Armenia. It is clear that in order to respond in any way, one must at least have a Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which is almost dissolved in Armenia, which is surprising in our situation. In addition, it is desirable for the government to consult with experts on such issues, as there are independent expert centers for such cases in developed countries.
But Armenia needs neither diplomats nor experts. There is only one diplomat and expert in Armenia. And you know who that one person is.
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Aram Abrahamyan
