“When the status quo was broken, other directions of hostilities arose because the borders are not delimited and demarcated outside the Karabakh conflict, and it is natural that there is a certain desire and temptation to take the situation tense. And this is where the problem that exists now, and which existed in May in the southern part of Armenia, arises from,” said Sergey Markedonov, a leading researcher at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations and a political scientist, about the shooting at the Armenian-Azerbaijani border in Yeraskh last night.
As for the CSTO position on not interfering in border incidents, Markedonov said that the isolation of the CSTO was not new. It was obvious in November last year and during the Four-Day War in 2016 as well. “Different states are involved in the CSTO and they have different levels of relations with Azerbaijan. It is the structure of the CSTO where they have specific interests with a regional peculiarity. Armenia is not interested in the conflict between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, and it is unlikely that Armenia will enter there, and it is unlikely that Armenia will enter into a border dispute between Russia and Ukraine. As for Russia’s aspirations, it cannot be unequivocally pro-Azerbaijani or pro-Armenian. If I were in contact with my Azerbaijani counterparts now, I would hear accusations that Russia hindered Azerbaijan’s victory, we did not take Stepanakert, peacekeepers are standing in the sovereign territory of Azerbaijan. Both sides have their claims. Russia’s interest is for shooting to stop there because the more they shoot, the more different foreign intervention there will be, which Russia does not need, and which leads to the reduction of its interests and opportunities in the South Caucasus.”
Referring to the Meghri corridor, the political scientist said that Russia’s logic here is that all the previous Armenian-Azerbaijani approaches do not work, so they should try to force the parties to be pragmatic through economic interests and unblocking communication, and maybe it will pass. “Pashinyan stated that Russia’s role in the demarcation and demarcation process is exceptional and agrees with Russia’s proposals. Now he has been re-elected, and the Constitutional Court, a part of which is still from Kocharyan’s time, considers the election results legitimate. This figure has been elected and considers Russia’s position acceptable,” the political scientist said. According to him, Russia can not ignore foreign players in the region. “How can we not take into account a country of 80 million people whose military capabilities are second only to the United States in NATO, and this country (referring to Turkey- N.B.) does not leave NATO, and tensions with this country are possible in the future? It is full of threats, including clashes with that bloc. This is the reality. A new status quo has emerged, new players and new assertions have emerged in the region, and Russia has difficult relations with that player in Syria, Libya, Cyprus, and all this requires a serious weighting of interests.”
Nelly Babayan
