“That’s it, soon Islam will take over the whole world”: this is how the majority of Armenians respond to the news that the Taliban “finally” came to power in Afghanistan on the streets and on Facebook. I put the word “finally” in quotations because experience shows that no one is able to maintain power for a long time, and even more, that power cannot be full or include the entire country and all sectors. It is also important to consider that the understanding of “Islam” comes in many layers, and several countries that follow that religion (first of all, of course, Iran) are our allies. And finally, “tribalist” claims about “the entire world” are obvious exaggerations. Of course, the Taliban’s victory will cause several changes to take place in our region as well, and diplomats and experts need to take that seriously. But I also would like to turn attention to another circumstance, which, in my opinion, is very instructive to us.
As it turned out, the Afghan army, armed with modern weapons (including UAVs) and several times larger than Taliban, could not or did not want to resist the Islamists from the moment the Americans began to leave. There is only one answer to that: there is no Afghan state. Since 2001, the United States has spent tens of billions to build that state, naturally for its own interests, but that project failed, just as British and Soviet projects related to the same country failed. Of course, one can fall into propaganda emotions and say: “The freedom-loving Afghan people have never tolerated the coercion of foreigners wrapped around their necks and want to go their own way.” But first, it is necessary to understand what the preachers mean by “Afghan people,” and secondly, to answer the following question. At a time when foreigners were not packing anything, was the Afghan state stabilizing at that time? Will it take place during the Taliban rule? Even more, does the Taliban have the notions of “Afghan people” and “Afghan state”?
Imagine such a situation. The United Nations, the United States, or any other country or international organization gathers hundreds of young people in Afghanistan, “trains” them for half a year to become police officers, and then they are paid for 5 years to maintain public order. Will these young people become normal police officers in 5 years? I strongly doubt it if they do not have the internal motivation to carry out that service, if they do not know why they are “police,” and if other state structures are not in harmony with that service. Failure to meet all these preconditions will lead to corruption, overriding personal and clan interests, and, ultimately, sluggish and disorganized work. I am not claiming that Afghanistan will never become a state. It can and will happen when, even with foreign help, the citizens realize the need for that state and understand the purpose of its existence.
Is it clear now why the Afghan experience is instructive for us?
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Aram Abrahamyan
