Both in our country and across the world, political scientists are increasingly voicing the opinion that unprecedented rapid changes have taken place in recent years that will lead to drastic and, unfortunately, dangerous consequences for many countries around the world. In that sense, the catastrophe that happened last year in Artsakh and now continues in Afghanistan is viewed in the same light. It is practically impossible to predict what will happen in the coming decades. Our ideas about the future are often similar to the predictions of the 1880s, when people thought that in the 1930s there would be so many horses on this planet that humanity would be in serious danger. It is a very common logical mistake when today’s data spreads to tomorrow without reservations. And while it is difficult to talk about possible developments, the current trends are more or less clear.
- Reducing the role of all power centers (sometimes called “empires”). Moreover, this is happening much faster than in the 20th century, when, for example, the British Empire collapsed in about 20 years, in the 1930s and 1950s. Now, as we see, it is the United States’ turn. In 2019, an eloquent article was published in the American Foreign Affairs magazine titled “The Self-Destruction of American Power.” And its author is not a Kremlin agent at all. It is “pure American” political scientist Farid Zakaria.Two years after the article was published, we saw what happened in Afghanistan. Moreover, it seems to me that the regional “imperial” ambitions of Russia and Turkey, which are directly related to us, will contribute to the “disintegration” of those countries, but that does not mean anything good for the countries of the South Caucasus.
- Abolition of the principles of the world order. When the leaders of countries (including Armenia) say that this or that issue should be settled on the basis of “known principles,” they naturally mean the principles of the 1975 Helsinki Final Act. In my opinion, they have the same meaning as the “Westphalian” principles developed 370 years ago, that is, they have remained on paper and in history. The non-functioning Helsinki principles are non-use of force, self-determination of nations, and territorial integrity. This probably means that the superpowers must “shake off the stones” and develop new principles that correspond to today’s reality.
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- The digital age, when people’s thoughts and judgments are becoming more and more primitive because instead of perceiving serious books or works of art, people consume “informational fast food” and use clichés and stereotypes that already exist somewhere instead of using their brains. I am convinced that this is the most serious negative trend – World War III, in which all mankind was defeated.
Aram Abrahamyan
