According to political scientist Arif Yunusov, an Azerbaijani conflict expert living in the Netherlands, Azerbaijan did not win last year. Russia won because it wanted to return to Azerbaijan for a quarter of a century, now it is in the region. “I am afraid our children will still have to deal with the Karabakh issue. The Karabakh issue is not only unresolved, but last year was just the second war. Now one question interests me: when will the third war take place, or maybe the fourth?” Arif Yunusov said during a video discussion in the Article 3 press club. According to him, last year’s war was the implementation of Lavrov’s plan, which was a modernized version of the Madrid Principles, with the difference being the return of seven regions and the deployment of Russian peacekeeping troops in the region.
“In fact, Azerbaijan did not win last year. Russia won because it wanted to return to the territory of Azerbaijan for a quarter of a century, now it is in the region, and I doubt that we should talk about Armenian-Azerbaijani relations without mentioning the Russian factor. It will be a frivolous approach. For Russia, the Karabakh conflict is like a boxing match where Russia needs to punish the Armenians at the hands of Azerbaijan and vice versa. Last year, Russia punished Pashinyan at the hands of Azerbaijan,” Yunusov said. In his opinion, the Karabakh issue has not been settled, and when they say that the issue has been resolved, it is for internal propaganda.
“We understand that Karabakh has remained. We have essentially returned to 1991 where the NKAO was not under Azerbaijani control, but Shushi was.” According to Yunusov, when the time frame for the Russian peacekeeping troops’ presence is almost up, there will be either a major provocation that could lead to another war, which will resolve the issue of Russian troops staying in the region, or a major war that will extend the stay of Russian troops for another five years. “Russia will not leave just like that and we are already hearing from politicians close to the Kremlin that Russia is not there for the sake of Armenians and not for five years, but for a long time.” According to Yunusov, no matter what Aliyev says, the OSCE Minsk Group will continue the negotiation process, and today, in addition to the Minsk Group, Putin, Pashinyan, and Aliyev play a decisive role.
“The main levers are in Russia’s hands, and I do not believe that the negotiations will be effective within the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group. God forbid that there will be a third war, God forbid that it should be a frozen conflict, for example, like the conflicts in Kashmir or Cyprus, and in that frozen state we should decide something step by step, solve small key issues. But I am afraid that this will not be the case either because Russia is in the region, which does and will do everything to keep the Karabakh issue up in the air.”
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According to Arif Yunusov, when the conflict is resolved, there will be an opportunity to normalize Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, which will lead to normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations and the restoration of infrastructure, and then the question will arise: what is the role of the Russian military base in the region? Arif Yunusov is not optimistic that Armenian-Turkish relations will be normalized in the near future, nor is he optimistic about the restoration of infrastructure in the region and, so to speak, its reopening, as the parties mean different things when referring to the reopening of infrastructure.
Nelly BABAYAN
