Why did it all start, why were we not ready, why were responsible people not ready now, if, just a generation ago, those people were prepared and victorious? Alexander Iskandaryan, the director of the Caucasus Institute who took part in the discussion organized by the Article 3 club, raised such questions about the recent 44-day war in Artsakh. Mr. Iskandaryan did not receive the answers to those questions. The topic of the discussion was a study entitled “Storm in the Caucasus” published by the Center for Strategy and Technology Analysis.
The study covers the background of the large-scale armed conflict between Azerbaijan and the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic and Armenia in September-November of 2020, as well as the broad international context and the actual military component. In particular, the study states that the Armenian army shot down four of its planes during the conflict with Azerbaijan. The air defense forces of the Armenian army could not resist the enemy drones, and the line of defense had not been updated since the 90s. The study also notes that the war cost Azerbaijan dearly.
According to Mr. Iskandaryan, the war could have been predicted as Azerbaijan had been preparing for it for a long time and did not hide it. On the contrary, Azerbaijan was open about it. As far as why the war began at that time, according to him, Turkey and Azerbaijan chose a time when there were elections in the United States, Europe had serious problems, there were disagreements between Brussels and Turkey, and COVID-19 was raging in the world.
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According to Kerim Has, an expert on international and Turkish-Russian relations, Turkey actively intervened in the war and it affected the outcome of the war. On the other hand, Moscow was dissatisfied with the activities of the current Armenian authorities, and the Russian side, to some extent, gave the green light to the Azerbaijani side to start the war. According to Kerim Has, there is another problem. The Russian side did not want to take risks in spoiling relations with Turkey. “It concerns Syria, Libya, and Crimea. In other words, given the regional situation, Russia did not want to take risks.” According to the expert, after the war, Moscow reserved a symbolic role for Turkey, allowing Turkey to set up a monitoring center in Aghdam. “That center simply does not exist; the drones just take off into the air. And Russian peacekeepers are doing their job there. In other words, Russia has met Turkey’s ambitions to some extent.”
Ruslan Pukhov, the head of the Center for Strategy and Technology Analysis, believes that Russia and Armenia should learn lessons from this war. “Russia should learn that the Armenians paid a very high price. Armenians paid with blood. They should know that the opponent should never be underestimated even if it is in the post-Soviet space. Russia should learn from that war that its ally paid dearly and not repeat the Armenian mistakes. Second, Russia must restore the combat readiness of the Armenian armed forces, first with weapons, then with new intelligence skills, and so on.”
Ruslan Pukhov does not think that the Armenian intelligence failed in this war. “When politics fails, it puts the blame on intelligence. I am deeply convinced that the Armenian intelligence has known and reported everything.” According to Mr. Pukhov, Armenia should also come to its senses and blame only itself, and not blame Russia and Turkey for its failures. “First of all, the mistakes must be corrected in Yerevan. If you do not come to your senses or learn lessons, we can never do it for you.”
Lusine Budaghyan
