On the eve of the 30th anniversary of the Independence of the Republic of Armenia, another “positive signal” sounded from Turkey. The President of Turkey announced that the Prime Minister of Armenia had offered to meet with him. However, in response, Erdogan again brought up the issue of the Zangezur corridor, insisting that the Armenian side should take clear steps. Thus, Erdogan, at least in public, clearly states what is expected of Armenia if the Armenian government wants to “talk to him.”
Of course, Turkey is in a position of strength. Of course, they continue their traditional policy of putting pressure on Armenia, clearly speaking with preconditions. However, it should be noted that the Turkish President may not have spoken publicly about the proposal sent to him via the Georgian authorities. Therefore, it means that a certain process is still going on, and it is possible that there are other “players” in the process. Some, by the way, have already stated that they would like to be part of the normalization of Armenia-Turkey relations.
To be honest, we should mention that if Armenian-Turkish relations are normalized, those who start this process can even claim the Nobel Prize. And based on Erdogan’s ambitions, one can assume that he would not refuse to appear on that “front” as the one who does the impossible, moreover, ahead of Russia. The whole problem is that we do not know what the agenda of official Yerevan is on the basis of possible negotiations with Ankara.
Last autumn, during the war in Nagorno-Karabakh with the active support of Turkey, it would not have been bad if official Yerevan had negotiated with Baku and Ankara, and not discussed the possibility of establishing a ceasefire exclusively with Russia. Moreover, even after the trilateral statement signed on November 10, Armenia should not have allowed Russia and Turkey to “gamble” valuable bets from the point of view of Armenian interests, and then come to an agreement and inform Yerevan that this is how it should be. Armenia must have the right to say “yes” or “no” and exercise its right.
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Armenia is sovereign as long as its voice is heard, as long as it negotiates and speaks with the leaders of other countries. Therefore, the loser in the war must quickly self-organize, have an agenda, and work out its strategy and tactics in the implementation of that agenda. In this sense, Pashinyan’s proposal to Erdogan via Tbilisi is not a tragedy.
The tragedy for the state will be that after the signing of the ceasefire in the 44-day war, in conditions of relative peace, the Armenian side continues its defeats on the diplomatic front. It is here that there are great fears and questions about what the Armenian authorities are ready to discuss with Ankara, on what issues they will agree, on what issues they will make concessions, and on what issues we should expect and receive concessions from Ankara. It is not worth joking with Turkey. Erdogan’s Turkey is perhaps one of the most ambitious countries today.
The Serbian president, for example, recently called Turkey a “regional superpower.” Many other countries are taking this into account today, although Turkey has not yet been publicly called a superpower.
Emma GABRIELYAN
