There are a lot of emotional comments on the internet in connection to the first anniversary of the beginning of the second Artsakh war. The feelings of our compatriots are understandable; any normal person experiences those feelings. But those who, despite all the circumstances, are going to live in the Republic of Armenia and Artsakh, must look ahead, and for that we must understand the reasons for the last war. This is important because, unlike the current government, I do not think we will have a peaceful period.
Recently I listened to one of the lectures of the famous American historian Stephen Kotiin, and I liked one of his statements. “The war was not an accident; the war was the result of a miscalculation.” He was referring to World War I. He meant that in the end, no one won, neither the winners nor the losers, and if Austria-Hungary, Britain, Russia, Germany, France, or the other players knew what would happen to them and the world in terms of a more or less long historical perspective, those countries would not start a war or get involved in it. There is also some “carelessness,” the belief that the actions of a given state may not lead to a full-scale war. This is the result of a miscalculation.
I have already had the opportunity to write about our weaknesses, as well as the positions of the main players, which Azerbaijan used to start a war. Now Azerbaijan (in official terms, at least) is celebrating its “victory” and the “restoration of territorial integrity.” But has Aliyev calculated the consequences of the presence of Russian troops in Artsakh in the coming years and decades, as well as the growing dependence on Turkey? But let the Azerbaijanis think about it.
Turning to us, I can say with confidence that the last war was the result of a miscalculation by the second, third, and fourth leaders. I do not want to delve into this issue, but it is obvious to me that since 1998, we have fallen into the arms of imaginary images and, unfortunately, those attitudes have remained the same today. Now is the time to reconsider what needs to be done to prevent a new war. The obvious answers are to strengthen the army, buy UAVs, and develop the country’s economy. All this is necessary, but it is, after all, another miscalculation because it can be a consequence, not a basis. The Afghan army also had UAVs and other state-of-the-art weapons, but the Taliban did not. That army lost because there is no Afghan national identity on which the state is built. The rest is for another time.
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Yesterday the government and the opposition held their PR actions on the occasion of the one-year anniversary of the war, while their propagandists accused the other side of treason. That is their job. Let them practice.
Aram Abrahamyan
