The commentator thinks that “we will not come to a situation where there is a new explosion in the region- Iran hopes that Armenia will not provide a corridor.”
When the knife reached the bone, the Iranian side began to show signs of concern, as it felt that there were two major powers in the region dictating its rules: Turkey, which has historically had difficult relations with Iran, and Russia, with which it has a partnership and a history of serious historical difficulties. Tatul Hakobyan, a journalist and the coordinator of the Ani Center for Armenian Studies, expressed such an opinion on Friday at the Article 3 press club referring to the recent deterioration of Iran-Azerbaijan-Turkey relations and its possible consequences for Armenia. Mr. Hakobyan made a historical hint, reminding that Tehran and Moscow remember well that this region, to the left of the Araks, is called Transcaucasia or South Caucasus, and that two hundred years ago it was a bone of contention between Iran and Russia, and the Russians captured Yerevan and other territories from the Iranians and annexed them to Russia.
“Now the Iranian side feels that it finds itself in a situation when there is no place for it to play in the region, but in connection with this it has to ask itself why did this happen?”
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During the war, official Tehran congratulated Azerbaijan on liberating its lands, and in 1993, it called for the withdrawal from the occupied territories. Moreover, in the summer of 1993, the Iranian side forced the three Iranian-Armenian dioceses to condemn the Armenian actions in Aghdam. Today in Armenia, especially among Iranian scholars, there is a very friendly attitude towards Iran, and even defense. In some cases, Armenian political thought even tries to advance the Iranian views. “Undoubtedly, Iran is a very important state for Armenia. We are good neighbors, but there are interests, and we should be guided by those interests,” said Tatul Hakobyan.
According to Tatul Hakobyan, what is happening in the region is Iran’s nervous reaction, and not to what happened in Artsakh, but Iran sees that it is being pushed out of the region and may not have a place at all, and that is why it is making anti-Azerbaijani statements. “I am surprised that Armenian circles are waiting to see where Iran will strike Azerbaijan and so on. We should not be happy. This can have serious consequences, including serious consequences for Armenia, even if the relations between Iran and Azerbaijan become even more tense. I do not think that they will come to such a point, and I think that the issue will be settled peacefully. Azerbaijan and Iran, which have much more serious interests than Armenia and Iran, will come to an agreement, but I am worried that the agreements will be at the expense of our own interests.”
According to Mr. Hakobyan, all the powers are involved in this region, and it is obvious that there can be serious developments. However, there is no Armenia, and the Armenian government is busy with very narrow issues, and the opposition is busy with its narrower interests. Nevertheless,
Mr. Hakobyan is convinced that we will not come to a situation where there will be a new explosion in the region. “Iran’s concern is that Azerbaijan and Turkey will seize that corridor from us, but the Iranians should not ask us about that corridor. We are not here as a state, even Azerbaijan does not play a significant role, and neither does Turkey. Here, Russia will decide the issue of that corridor. And if they decide to give up that corridor and come with their troops to stand in that corridor in order to keep Armenia in their hands and have leverage over Turkey and Azerbaijan, the Iranians can do nothing. Armenia will suffer no matter what developments take place because it has lost the role as Artsakh’s security provider. It is not the guarantor of its security. Armenia is not the guarantor of its security in Syunik. The Armenian government has nothing to do; it has delegated everything to Russia.”
Nelly BABAYAN
