In my opinion, Pashinyan’s recent visit to Russia showed that the Russian President trusts the Prime Minister of Armenia. “Pro-Russians” from the opposition may say that this is not the case, and “pro-Westerners” may agree with me, but they will insist that it is very bad. My approach is different. No matter who the leader of Armenia is, having the trust of Russia’s permanent and (now it is clear) lifelong leader is important, and if Russia wants to overthrow the Prime Minister of our country, which some of our oppositionists dream of, nothing good will come of it.
Another question is why Putin trusts Pashinyan. The answer to that question is clear. The Kremlin needs a defeated leader who has no grace to run a state but, on the other hand, enjoys the trust of the majority inside the country. Apparently, this is an ideal option for Moscow. After the defeat in the war, Armenia’s independence (political scientists say “subjectivity”) was almost zero. We are not able to ensure the security of our compatriots still in Artsakh, as well as the borders of Armenia, so we rely exclusively on Russia in these matters. In those conditions, Moscow needs a leader like Pashinyan.
Naturally, we Armenians are concerned about two issues related to the Armenian-Russian relations (assuming we are still concerned about something). The first question is whether Russia can or wants to impose a solution on Armenia and Azerbaijan. In my opinion, it doesn’t. At least Moscow will not rush into this issue and it will not rush the parties. The main reason for this is that this process is, so to speak, synchronized with the political trade (and hidden competition) between Russia and Turkey. Armenia may be part of a larger deal that takes into account the interests of Russia and Turkey in the Near East and other parts of the world, as well as energy, economic and military-technical cooperation. Armenia is neither in the first nor in the second point in this big deal, but it is one of the important points.
The second question, which many people are likely interested in, is the following: Will Armenia join the Russia-Belarus or any other similar alliance? Again, I do not think that will happen in the near future. At the moment, Russia has no particular motive to “formalize” our relations. It seems to me that the de-facto highly dependent state of Armenia is quite favorable for Moscow. And the fact that we have a flag at the UN and a governor called “prime minister” does not bother Russia at all.
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Aram Abrahamyan
