Last Sunday, local elections were held in 6 communities: Dilijan, Tegh, Tatev, Gyumri, Goris, and Meghri. In the last three communities, the Civil Contract failed to win a majority. Moreover, this fact can be described as a “victory of the opposition” only in the case of Goris, where the leader of the victorious force is actively involved in politics and is currently in prison. The official reason is that he committed violations during the June 20 parliamentary elections. The unofficial reason is that during one of the Prime Minister’s visits to Syunik, insulting words were addressed to the head of state.
As for Gyumri and Meghri, it is difficult to consider the winning political forces as opposition. The Balasanyan bloc is a part of the nomenclature of the previous government, which has long found common ground with the people who came after the revolution, and I think there will be no problem in forming an alliance with Civil Contract and having a joint candidate for mayor. The Republic party, which won in Meghri, ran as an ally of Pashinyan in the previous parliamentary elections, focusing on the image of his main rival Kocharyan, thus joining the government’s agenda.
However, the question remains as to why Civil Contract did not win in those communities. Of course, the fact that local elections have their own uniqueness plays a role; here, local, often clan interests are more important than political conflicts. It also matters how much the candidate for mayor who leads the party list is recognized by the residents of the community.
But there are other reasons, one of which, I think, is that Civil Contract does not exist as such. There is Nikol Pashinyan and his entourage, from which the voters know a limited number of people. I think the rating of the Prime Minister is high (conventionally speaking, 54%), and it could not go down at once in a few months. (Another issue that this rating will not always be high is that nothing in political life is eternal).
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The other reason is more fundamental. As I have already mentioned, the main propaganda thesis of the government during these 3 years can be formulated as “we are good because the former regime is bad.” If this object of hatred and enmity (which played a decisive role in the last parliamentary elections) disappears, then the need to vote for the current government disappears. For example, the Civil Contract candidate for mayor of Gyumri could not go out to Gyumri Square with a hammer and announce that he wants to become mayor to prevent the return of the former regime. If he did such a thing, he would probably, to put it mildly, be ridiculed by the people of Gyumri.
Aram Abrahamyan
