“In any case, Russia would like to be in a format where it will be involved and not be left out of regional processes and discussions,” said political scientist Armen Vardanyan in an interview with Aravot, referring to the effectiveness of the so-called 3 + 3 format. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated at a press conference with his Iranian counterpart Hossein Amir-Abdollahian on October 6 that they had discussed the initiative to establish a “3 + 3” negotiation format with Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, and Turkey on the issue of unblocking transport links. It should be noted that this format was initially proposed by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, which meant Armenia, Russia, Azerbaijan, Iran, Georgia, and Turkey. According to Armen Vardanyan, if 3 + 3 turns into 3 + 1, Russia will do its best to be there. According to him, at the moment the whole problem is between Russia and Georgia. “The two countries have suspended diplomatic relations, and Georgia does not want to be in a format where Russia is.”
In response to our question of whether Turkey will become stronger in the region against the background of the Russian-Georgian conflict, Armen Vardanyan answered, “It became obvious in the past year. The culmination of this was last year’s 44-day war, after which Turkey strengthened its position. Turkish diplomacy continues to make efforts in this direction, trying more and more to establish itself in the South Caucasus, and these tendencies will continue in the coming years. Turkey will do everything in its power to strengthen its position in the region, and at some point will try to oust Russia and Iran from the region in order to gain a dominant position in the South Caucasus.”
In response to our question of what the West’s role can be in this case, especially from the point of view that lately the West seeks to increase the involvement of the OSCE Minsk Group while developing anti-Russian sentiments, the political scientist said, “It is clear that a number of countries in the region are trying to push the West out of the region. Turkey, Russia, Iran, and to some extent Azerbaijan, want to oust the West. It should be approximately Astana-2’s, as those countries cooperated in pushing the United States out of Syria. From this point of view, we can say that the position of the West in our region has weakened considerably. And the West has realized that its positions here are lost and is trying to somehow restore them. In this case, the OSCE Minsk Group is trying to develop the format. The US Ambassador to Armenia clearly stated that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has not been resolved yet, the status issue must be resolved. This shows that the United States is not going to leave the South Caucasus completely, despite the fact that its position has weakened considerably in recent years. In addition, the United States encourages Georgia to abort the 3 + 3 format through the US. This is also clearly stated by American politicians and diplomats. The US Secretary of Defense, who is in Georgia, recently stated in an almost diplomatic tone that the 3 + 3 format is unacceptable.”
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Tatev Harutyunyan
