Why didn’t the Sultan of the Ottoman Empire, Abdul Hamid, carry out “reforms,” which he said he would do and, on the contrary, organized the bloody massacres of Armenians? “Because he was insidious, bloodthirsty, and a criminal,” we will answer and, of course, we will be right on a purely emotional level. But political thinking requires going beyond that and understanding what enabled him to do so. The Sultan had a choice to go in that direction because he had received the support of European powers, and for those powers the strengthening of the Ottoman Empire in the geopolitical situation of that time was much more important than the suffering of Armenians or other nations. It is painful, it may sound cynical, but I am sure that if we want to have a state, we must be able to look at reality with a cold eye.
What is more important for Russia – Christian solidarity or maintaining the greatest possible influence on Armenia and Azerbaijan, as well as economic and military-technical cooperation with Turkey, which costs billions of dollars? One can sigh, “oh, unjust world,” and one can look at the situation soberly. It is worth remembering that centuries ago, Byzantium also often did not show Christian solidarity with the Bagratids and then the Cilician kingdoms because it had its own imperial interests. And the Persians, Arabs, and others had the best opportunity to attack Armenia just when they felt that there were contradictions between the ministerial dynasties.
Why did Aliyev attack Artsakh in 2020? Of course, for a number of reasons, among which the priority was, I think, the internal situation in Armenia. He saw that as a result of the revolution, the Armenian society was divided, the “white” and “black” state institutions were divided, the army was discredited and weakened. (By the way, I think it was not a necessary consequence of the revolution; that is the policy of these authorities). He also calculated that Pashinyan would have the opportunity to put the blame for the defeat on the “former” and the army, and that after a few years we would be looking for the culprits, which also weakens us.
The inner life, of course, must also be looked at coldly. If Pashinyan has a way of exploiting people’s emotions, myths, and ignorance to extend his power, then why shouldn’t he do it? There are very few politicians in the world who will not take such an opportunity.
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Aram Abrahamyan
