“I officially declare that I, Serzh Sargsyan, will never run for the post of President of the Republic of Armenia again. If, as a result of the final discussions, a path is chosen that does not correspond to my wishes, I mean the parliamentary model of government, then I will not run for the post of Prime Minister either. I am even convinced that one person should not run for the presidency in Armenia more than twice in their life,” the third president of Armenia said on April 14, 2014 during a meeting with the Constitutional Reform Commission. I am not quoting this to recall the events that followed, although if the head of state “officially announces” something, then the world will turn around and act according to what they have announced.
But I remember this speech because a process of constitutional changes is being initiated now, the goals of which are obvious to me. This government may or may not last until the next parliamentary elections in 2026, and snap elections cannot be not ruled out at all. First of all, it is clear that neither socioeconomic nor security prospects await Armenia. Add to this the fact that in the next 1-2 years the prominent Civil Contract members will “get pretentious” or, in legal terms, “get rich illegally” (the process has already begun) and will become just the same characters for ordinary citizens as the prominent RPA members.
Pashinyan’s personal rating is unlikely to rise in the meantime, but in any case, for his loyal electorate, he will remain a hero who liberated them from the “Karabakh people.” As the number one candidate on the Civil Contract list, it will be more difficult for him to reproduce himself this way than as a presidential candidate who is supported by a “broad coalition of parties” (I will not give the names of those parties- they are known). Thus, in order to reduce the risks, it makes sense to change the constitution next year, return to the presidential system, and then be elected President of the Republic of Armenia for 5 years.
As for the official justifications for the constitutional changes, they will be almost the same as they sounded in 2014: deepening, expanding, spreading, etc. If the government really cared about democracy, it would not persecute unfaithful judges, it would not pass one law after another restricting freedom of speech, and it would not imprison community leaders.
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And I have no doubt that next year, the majority of citizens will be in favor of constitutional changes. They will be told, “If you do not want Robert Kocharyan to return, you must say ‘yes’ to the changes, and that will solve the problem.”
Aram Abrahamyan
