“Trouw”
Engage the UN in the frozen Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
In the shadow of the looming major conflict over Ukraine and the cracking regime of Belarus, there is the frozen conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. After the independence of both countries as a result of the dissolution of the then Soviet Union, the conflict has flared up three times, most recently two years ago.
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The damage of these three wars to the people is great: deaths, injuries, refugees and a huge damage to the local economy. The ceasefire of the end of 2020 was forged by Russia, which has since guarded the fragile peace with peacekeepers. Every now and then there is a small skirmish that barely makes the international press. The world community is passively following and is already happy that a fourth war has not yet started.
File down the sharp edges of the conflict
However, the International Court of Justice recently ruled in two cases that both countries have brought against each other. The verdict is a victory for Armenia: a gain on Azerbaijan’s treatment of prisoners of war and hate speech. Addresses to both sides not to aggravate the conflict and to private individuals in Armenia not to sow hatred. The Court can polish off the sharp edges of a conflict, but it cannot really resolve it.
What is needed for that? I propose the idea of a United Nations (UN) mission. There are historical examples of successful mandate areas and peace operations. There are also examples of endless almost hopeless operations, such as those in Cyprus. It is easy to immediately raise practical and political problems with such a mission. Those are real too.
Reputation gains can benefit the country
The agreement of all members of the Security Council is needed, the most important stakeholder, Russia, first. What could move Russia to cooperate? Possibly the political and reputation gains that the country could make use of in this dark period (Ukraine, tensions with the US and Europe).
Nagorno-Karabakh could then become an example of an ultimately peacefully settled conflict in the former Soviet Union, now Russia’s periphery. The alternative has continued to play the (expensive) role of a regional police officer for a long time to come.
The cooperation of the US, China and Europe is also needed for a UN mandate. This will not be without a struggle – certainly not with China – but it must be feasible. Europe invariably supports attempts of a ceasefire and a peace settlement, but is unable to play an active, let alone a decisive role itself.
Frozen conflict with Russia as sole actor
The US will not want to burn their fingers on the conflict, but will not stand in the way of a UN role. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) in which all the key players, minus China, act, is also incapable of enforcing peace.
The only option left is the UN besides dragging this frozen conflict on and on with Russia as the sole actor. A win-win situation is conceivable in line with the international legal order. Within that framework, a solution to the status of Nagorno-Karabakh must and can be found. After all, now there will never be a real winner or a total loser and the players are holding each other in a deadlock. Not an attractive idea, such a war on the threshold of Europe. What prevents us and what prevents the Netherlands from suggesting this idea?
