I am amazed at the self-confidence with which my fellow citizens comment on the events in Kazakhstan. Where did so many experts with such a deep understanding of Kazakh problems come to Armenia? The three main Armenian hypotheses on the issue are as follows: 1) The unrest provoked the West and Turkey (or only Turkey) to cut off Kazakhstan from Russia and create a “Great Turan Zone.” Of course, such a factor can exist.
But with the same probability, it could be a multi-step combination of Russia to tighten its grip on Kazakhstan. 2) It was the struggle of the Kazakh democrats for democracy. That is not ruled out. And it is possible that the clan and “class” conflicts are at the core, as it is known that Kazakhstan has a complex and tangled structure in this regard. By the way, let me remind you that the “Arab Spring” also, at least seemingly, started as a democratic movement. 3) All this was organized by Tokayev against Nazarbayev in order to gain one-sided power. We know that one-sided power is a sweet thing, but what happened to the former and current presidents of Kazakhstan, I, unlike our “Kazakh scholars,” do not know.
It is more or less clear what attitude the state of Armenia should adopt in all these issues. I think perfect neutrality would be an ideal option, taking into account the long-term interests of Armenia and Kazakhstan, as well as the existence of the Armenian community in that country. In other words, the best option would be if we did not interfere at all with neither the “democrats,” nor the “imperialists,” nor the Russians, nor the West. Unfortunately, maintaining that neutrality is practically impossible. Due to the defeat of Armenia in the Artsakh war, our country has lost its weight in the world and, in particular, in the CSTO, and it is dependent on Russia. It cannot help but follow Putin’s instructions. So, Pashinyan could not avoid sending troops to Kazakhstan, although I agree that there is a certain irony in it. The man who came to power through street protests is now sending troops to quell the protests.
What can the Prime Minister of Armenia not do? He may not pretend to be a world leader and has finally been able to “work” the previously non-functioning mechanisms of the CSTO. People in Armenia think of it as just a joke and childishness. But it can make a real impression on real world leaders. The Prime Minister may also refrain from describing the events in Kazakhstan (for example, “international terrorism”). There is no need to be more Putin than Putin, and it does not seem that this is required of Armenia.
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Aram Abrahamyan
