In a previous article, I mentioned that the recent aggressive messages of the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev are addressed not so much to the internal Azerbaijani audience or to Armenia, whose current leadership, in fact, recognizes that Artsakh is part of Azerbaijan and thus, it does not make much sense, as they say, to “break the open door.” I think the main addressees of aggressive rhetoric are Russia, and to a lesser extent France and the United States. In form, Aliyev’s speeches are slanderous, but in the content, if we read carefully, there are elements of serious fears, and those alarms have certainly increased after the recent events in Kazakhstan. Contrary to popular stereotypes in Armenia, the Putin-Nazarbayev and Putin-Tokayev relations are not so idyllic, and, by the way, regardless of whether the CSTO forces remain in Kazakhstan or not, the problems are not solved at all.
These events, of course, are a signal for Aliyev as well. As an experienced politician, he understands that his and Erdogan’s “kingdom” may not last forever. These two leaders can, to put it mildly, “finally tire” both Russia and the West so that the attitude towards them will become more than cold, and it will be difficult to be alone in front of the world (or only with the support of Pakistan). Even Hitler could not stand it alone. Aliyev urgently needs new “successes” in the form of a “peace treaty, demarcation, and a “corridor” convenient for him. Who’s delaying the issue? Armenia, whose prime minister will do what Putin instructs him to do? No, the main obstacle is Russia, and to some extent the West.
As it is known, in authoritarian countries the government does not change through elections. If Pashinyan manages to hold elections in the next 30 years, he will be reproduced every time, and the attitude of the citizens will not be a decisive factor here. The same in Azerbaijan, Turkey and elsewhere. The government should actually change in the streets from the beginning and only then fix the situation through voting and elections. This requires a) severe dissatisfaction of citizens, b) a serious split in the elite, c) lack of support from the “sponsoring” country (ies).
In the case of these three countries, it seems fantastic at the moment. But it seemed just as unrealistic in Kazakhstan – that’s why Aliyev is worried. If in such a scenario Pashinyan leaves because of incompetence and not being suitable for his position, then Aliyev and especially Erdogan will face much more serious accusations.
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Aram Abrahamyan
