The rude remarks of the President of Belarus about Armenia (for example, “nobody needs them”) have angered many here. Some even suggest protesting in front of the Belarusian Embassy. I think we should not be too worried about such issues. The President of Belarus, of course, has a fiery, eccentric character, but he is not stupid, and therefore, one should try to assess the content of what he said, as well as the fact that it is said in an interview with the official Russian TV channel. One might think that these are also the thoughts of Vladimir Putin, although, of course, the latter does not express himself in such a vulgar way.
And so, let’s interpret the meaning of what Lukashenko said. Accordingly, when Azerbaijan attacked Artsakh in September 2020, Armenia addressed the European Union, in particular, France, as well as the United States, through open and closed channels. These centers of the world showed no serious interest in the war in the South Caucasus and limited themselves to general, meaningless statements. Russia, which was interested in deploying peacekeepers in Artsakh, allowed the Azeri army to reach almost as far as Stepanakert and just stopped the war. Today, without Russian peacekeepers, Artsakh will be emptied of Armenians, and Syunik will be at least in serious danger. This is a dry statement of facts, which Lukashenko formulated with insulting expressions for us. What does it mean to go to the Belarusian embassy and say, “No, the world needs us!” Such things are not proved by demonstrations. The world needs you when you present yourself as a state, and for that, the authorities of your state should pursue a corresponding domestic and foreign policy, not think about who said or wrote about them on Facebook.
There is a possibility of joining the united country. It all depends on Putin, who for one reason or another may want to legalize the de facto relationship. By the way, the nationalist oppositionists say that Armenia can become a vilayet of Turkey. Of course, this is an exaggeration; Russia will not allow such a thing, unless, of course, this huge country collapses again. Another scenario is realistic: no matter how formal our membership in the Russia-Belarus-Central Asia “club” looks, it presupposes a certain synchronization of political regimes. So, the Armenian autocracy will become more and more similar to the Belarusian autocracy. The persecution of independent judges and non-governmental leaders, as well as the number of cases of “insults” against the authorities, which reach 300, are its first swallows.
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Aram Abrahamyan
