Armenia’s economy has always been open for Turkey․ The Minister of Economy of the Republic of Armenia Vahan Kerobyan confirmed this in a conversation with journalists. According to him, there was no obstacle for Turkish goods, except for 2021.
“If you go to Petak, the people there had business relations with their Turkish counterparts 10 years ago,” the minister said. Referring to this assertion during Aravot’s “Areresum (Confrontation)” program, Ara Qaryan, President of Logic Business-Center for Independent Financial and Economic Research, Ph.D. in Economic Sciences, and Associate Professor said, “That trade was mediated, in case of open borders it did not take place on an individual level or in a third country. It simply cannot be compared. In this case, there are two very important questions. First, Turkey, being a member of the World Trade Organization, has officially closed the possibility of favorable conditions for Armenia, which is one of the principles of the WTO. Secondly, the existing Kars-Gyumri road was closed, including the power transmission lines.”
The head of the Alternative Research Center, Ph.D. in Economic Sciences, and Professor Tatul Manaseryan added, “Since 1993, Turkey has had a clear government decision not to allow the import of Armenian goods, and this was later enshrined in law. But there was a shadow trade; some Armenian products were imported and rebranded under Georgian or other names.”
During the last Government-National Assembly questions-and-answers session, the Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan informed that an agreement had been reached at the level of the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders on the restoration and construction of the Yeraskh-Julfa-Ordubad-Meghri-Horadiz railway. According to him, “We have agreed that the railway will operate according to international standards, within the framework of the legislation and sovereignty of the two countries.”
Read also
Tatul Manaseryan, referring to the political preconditions for the construction of this railway connecting Armenia and Azerbaijan, said, “We do not have memory loss. In the Soviet years, being in one united state, when the trains passed through the territory of Azerbaijan, the windows were smashed with stones. That is in the case of passengers. And in the case of cargo, robbery almost always happened. Now if sovereign states have to deal with it, it is impossible without a third party; this is simply excluded. Armenophobia, beheading, and cutting off ears and tongues are modern cases, not cases from 30 years ago. Azerbaijan still has to make an effort to present itself to the world community․ Giving a murderer the title of national hero and clearing him of all this in order to gain his trust. To stupidly run after such ‘projects,” first of all, indicates a lack of dignity, I think. The requirements must be very clear. These are security requirements.”
The head of the government insisted that the operation of the Julfa-Ordubad-Meghri-Horadiz railway will contribute to the development of the economy. The head of the Logic Center referred to the expert calculations in this regard, “The most important issue that is considered that we will benefit is the reduction of transport costs by 25-30%. It can really happen. Moreover, not because we will use the open roads more, but because the Georgian side will see that there is an alternative and will reduce its tariffs.”
However, Mr. Qaryan also had reservations. “No matter how efficient it is, how much we will benefit economically, the calculations here show that we do not have such a large trade turnover to the south, going to Iran, Iraq and neighboring countries. This shows the structure of our foreign trade and export. It can not exceed 6-7%.”
The head of the Alternative Center disputed the expert calculations․ “I will quote from my conversation with the person in charge of the South Caucasus Railway a few years ago. There was dissatisfaction that cargo transported by road by road is cheaper than by rail. That’s why I want to put a serious question mark on those 25-30%․․․ I do not rule out that it will be 5-10%, but 20-25-30%․․․ these require serious justifications. What goods will be transported, where will they be transported, how much are they now, how long can they be?”
Tatul Manaseryan also noted, “Armenians do not need to explain the importance of having a railway or open borders. Armenia did not initiate this blockade. And you just have to act from the positions that first of all provide security and confidence that the war will not resume.”
And at the beginning of the program he mentioned, “If we are urged a lot from one side or the other, from inside, from outside, from different directions, I would like those appeals to be directed, for example, to Israel, they would say, ‘Well, open your borders. How many years has it been with Palestine, what is the situation?’ The Greeks will be offered to normalize relations with the Turks, to finally resolve the Cyprus issue. That is, every region, every ‘point of fire’ has its own peculiarities, and the calculations must be made very pragmatically in economic, political, social and demographic terms.”
Anna ISRAELYAN
