“There is no direct impact, but changes are possible here, in the sense that if, for example, Russia loses or fails, Turkey and Azerbaijan can take advantage of that, considering it the right time,” Hrant Mikayelyan, an economist and political scientist, told Aravot, referring to the question of what changes the Russian military invasion of Ukraine implies in the region and what possible impact it can have on Armenia and Artsakh, directly and indirectly. According to him, “Thus, Azerbaijan and Turkey will no longer consider the Russian military presence in Artsakh and Armenia an obstacle. Such a situation can be created, although we do not know how it will end. In any case, I think that Baku is watching this Russian military operation very closely.
Second, if Russia wins, Armenia will be more limited in its foreign policy. Relations with the West will be significantly limited, although this tendency has existed for a long time, it was simply not fully assessed by the Armenian government. In other words, there will be geopolitical influence in any case.” In addition to the above, according to Hrant Mikaelyan, the world is very quickly divided into camps, and Armenia finds itself in any camp, even if it does not want to․
“Armenia will not have such an opportunity. There will be such an effect. And it is too early to talk about the economic impact; the picture should be completely clear. I mean sanctions against Russia. Besides, in general, we do not know what sanctions will be applied in the end and how much Russia is ready for them or how vulnerable the Russian economy will be to those restrictions. Therefore, it is wrong to make theoretical assessments now, they may differ from reality.”
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We also asked whether there were grounds to claim that Russia would demand that Armenia recognize the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk. In this situation, how realistic is it for Armenia to recognize Artsakh’s independence at the same time? Hrant Mikaelyan answered, “If before this war I was convinced that Russia would not demand that Armenia recognize the self-proclaimed republics of Donetsk and Luhansk (it is not in Armenia’s interests to express its position in those events), now we can not be sure. There is a risk that it may be required of the Republic of Armenia, and it is not excluded that the Republic of Armenia will have to do it, although in any case it is in the best interests of the Republic of Armenia not to have any position in these events. Roughly speaking, this is not our war. As for Artsakh, unfortunately, what you said at the moment is not realistic. We had that opportunity in the 2000s, in 2016, in 2020. But now, if the independence of Artsakh is recognized, Azerbaijan will start military pressure, which Armenia has no way to counteract and does not initiate. Thus, a paradoxical situation can be created when Armenia recognizes Luhansk and Donetsk, but does not recognize Artsakh. I hope it will not be like that, but it is impossible to rule that out.”
Luiza Sukiasyan
