On February 22, a declaration on allied cooperation was signed between the presidents of Azerbaijan and Russia, according to which the parties are developing bilateral military-political cooperation, deepening cooperation between the armed forces of the two countries, and equipping them with modern weapons and military equipment. One of the provisions is “… to fight against extremism and separatism …”, “the parties refrain from any action, including through a third country, directed against each other,” and so on.
At the Aravot pavilion, the guests of the “Areresum (Confrontation)” program, Hovsep Khurshudyan, President of the Free Citizen Public Initiatives Support Center, and analyst Armen Baghdasaryan talked about this new strategic friendship, as well as what challenges the Russian-Ukrainian war contains for Armenia.
We have separated two parts from the discussion.
Read also
Should the Armenian government take measures to reduce the impact of sanctions against Russia on our economy?
Hovsep Khurshudyan: Unfortunately, the Armenian authorities do not have a strategy to diversify our foreign economic relations, as it is very dangerous to remain dependent on Russia in terms of trade. In case of sanctions, when Russia weakens sharply, some problems will arise, the flow of remittances from there will decrease, and we will not fall under big blows. And from another point of view, because Russia can and without weakening, put the same problems before Armenia, in order to put direct pressure on our country, if Armenia suddenly dared to defend its own interests more consistently․․․
Armen Baghdasaryan: Armenia cannot resist the impact of those sanctions, nor can it say like Georgia that it will not join․․․ Why? Because Armenia is a member of the EEU and a member of the Customs Union. Nor can it mitigate the impact of sanctions, even if it wants to.
Should we assume that the Moscow-Baku declaration does not pose a problem for Russia’s allied relations with Armenia?
Armen Baghdasaryan: I would not pay so much attention to the signed document because even without the signing of that document, there were de facto allied relations between Russia and Azerbaijan for at least a year, and even more. In any case, Russia has always recognized the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, supplied modern weapons, etc.
…We are dealing not with the Russian-Azerbaijani, but with the Russia-Azerbaijan-Turkey triangle, and it will be a little difficult to convince us that it is not directed against Armenia․․․ If it is not directed against us, against whom is that agreement directed? Theoretically, there is an option. Iran remains, as Georgia is unlikely to attack․․․ And Iran can theoretically intervene only if Azerbaijan tries to capture Syunik. Iran has stated that it will not allow that. Now that agreement means that if Azerbaijan suddenly launches hostilities in that direction and Iran tries to intervene, Russia will be obliged not to allow it.
Hovsep Khurshudyan: If we thought that the documents it signs are really important for Russia, I would say yes (according to Article 11 of the Declaration, “the Russian Federation and the Republic of Azerbaijan resolutely restrain the activities of organizations and individuals in their territories directed to the other side that are against state sovereignty, independence, and ‘territorial integrity.'” – A.I.). But here I have to agree with Mr. Baghdasaryan that those papers are of secondary-tertiary importance especially for Russia. They are more of a tool to use against the other side.
Anna ISRAELYAN
