Security Radar 2022
ARMENIA
Security Radar 2022 is the second edition of an FES survey gauging the public opinion in 14 states from across the OSCE region. The Radar reflects on major obstacles to achieving peace in Europe and distills political recommendations on how to overcome them. The 2022 edition clearly shows that overwhelming majorities of people want peace and cooperation to be a political priority. It also indicates that pragmatism is the way forward to break the current deadlock. The Radar makes clear that a renewed debate on European security needs to take place on the basis of existing frameworks.
Key messages:
- Overwhelming majorities of people want peace and cooperation to be a political priority. Political decision-makers need to provide ideas and initiatives for a more stable international framework. The situation in Europe is grave and complex, but that should not entail inaction, complacency or fatalism. There are major stumbling blocks in the way of progress and it would seem to be a Herculean task to overcome them, but the poll makes clear that citizens understand the various difficulties and dilemmas.
- Pragmatism is the way forward to break the current deadlock. A pragmatic approach could build on a diverse set of instruments, avoiding TINA (there is no alternative) thinking. The public does not perceive a contradiction between interest-based and value-based foreign policy. Concerning the instruments of choice, military, economic and diplomatic means are accepted, with a clear preference for diplomacy over the use of force or sanctions. According to the survey, the respondents do not perceive ideology or values as an impediment to dialogue and negotiation. A broad majority are in favour of cooperating with other countries, even if they do not share the same values. This public pragmatism gives governments room and impetus to shape bold policies aimed at cooperative security.
- A renewed debate on European security needs to take place on the basis of the existing frameworks.The Security Radar 2022 offers several indications of public support for serious negotiations aimed at renewing European security through multilateral institutions. Respondents are willing to cooperate, realising a sense of belonging to Europe and the mutual dependence of their respective countries. Multilateral institutions are viewed positively and still broadly garner high levels of trust, especially the United Nations and the OSCE.
Country-specific findings:
- Some 85% of respondents agree (73% of them strongly) that parts of neighbouring countries properly belong to Armenia – the highest proportion by far among the countries surveyed.
- 71% of Armenians strongly agree that Armenian foreign policy should represent the country’s own interests without restriction.
- A total of 51% of Armenians worry that a direct military confrontation between Russia and the West is likely, the highest number among the countries surveyed.
- Armenians seem determined to increase their military spending: a whopping 96% of Armenians see this as a necessary step.
Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Armenia
