Aravot interviewed political scientist and economist Hrant Mikayelyan.
– What volumes of Turkey’s economic presence in Armenia can we assume, and to what extent will the economic factor contribute to the political and public dialogue between the two countries? It is in reference to the government’s vision of opening the Armenian-Turkish border.
– Imports from Turkey to Armenia will increase significantly. Second, theoretically Turkish trade networks can be created. The Turkish presence in the Armenian market will significantly increase and first of all, it will take place in the market of food, agricultural products, as well as in light industry, in the production of shoes and clothes. The latter grew in Armenia over the last 5-10 years with difficulties. Those spheres will hardly be able to compete. Armenian goods are few in number, especially agricultural ones.
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Therefore, if Turkish goods enter Armenia, we will have very serious problems in the sense that we will not be able to compete.
Hrant Mikayelyan, a researcher, economist, and political scientist at the Caucasus Institute research center
I have not seen a discussion that this problem will be solved. Moreover, when the Minister of Economy says that there will be 30% growth, he uses incomprehensible sources. For example, the economy of Georgia is not ahead of Armenia, why did they assume that the economy of Armenia should grow from the opening of the border with Turkey? How will it grow? This is nonsense … to put it bluntly, they are ignorant statements.
– After the second meeting of the representatives of the Armenian-Turkish dialogue parties Ruben Rubinyan and Serdar Kilic, it was announced that the parties continue the negotiations without preconditions. In your opinion, what are the grounds for claiming that the Turkish side does not have or will not set preconditions at some stage?
– First of all, most of the preconditions have already been fulfilled. Pashinyan has already confirmed that the topic of genocide is being removed from the agenda. The territories of Artsakh have been handed over, and the issue of ratification of the Kars agreement is a separate issue. Most of the preconditions are actually fulfilled. Besides, let’s follow the process. Turkey says that there is no other precondition, but is it a reality? I doubt that the situation can be different.
Luiza Sukiasyan
