“It is a fact that there is a struggle between Russia and the United States in Ukraine now, but it does not mean that Ukraine is not a factor here,” this opinion was expressed by political scientist Beniamin Poghosyan during the online discussion on “Russian-Ukrainian War: The price of victory and defeat.”
Speaking about Ukraine, the political scientist said, “What is happening, unfortunately for Ukraine, is that Ukraine has become a hot spot in the Russia-US conflict, where the conflict has turned into an armed conflict. However, this does not mean that Ukraine is not a factor.” According to him, in any case there will be a political solution, as there are two options: a political agreement or absolute capitulation.
However, according to him, Ukraine will not be what it was before February 23, neither in terms of territory, nor in terms of being a factor as a state. “Ukraine will be an unstable state for a long time. The government will be in Kyiv or Lviv, but the government will not control most of its territories. There is a danger of armed insurrection, significant criminal instability. If you distribute weapons to the population, it is clear that it does not end up only in the hands of patriots.”
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According to Beniamin Poghosyan, for decades Ukraine will be a mix of Syrian-Libyan scenarios. “I do not think it is possible for Ukraine to regain control of the Russian-controlled territories, which are quite large, from Kherson to Kyiv,” he said. “Some cities are under blockade. The Russian troops did not enter those cities, but those cities are behind the Russian troops. Referring to Chernigov, Sumy, and Kharkov, then it will be difficult for the Russian troops to leave those territories. I do not think that Ukraine will be able to counterattack and withdraw. A guerrilla war will start there, and it is clear that the West will do everything for it. It will provide weapons, financial resources, and people who will physically go to fight, whether they are mercenaries, volunteers, or mercenaries in the name of volunteers. I estimate that for years, if not decades, Ukraine will be a mix of Syrian-Libyan scenarios.”
Tatev HARUTYUNYAN
