The Article 3 club organized a discussion on “Escalation in Artsakh: From Gas Terror to Local Fighting.” As it is known, the Azerbaijani troops continue to remain in the fortified positions in a part of Karaglukh and the work with the command of the Russian peacekeeping troops on the return of the Azerbaijani side to the starting positions continues.
Sergey Markedonov, a leading researcher at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO), said the Russian-Ukrainian war added to the situation in Karabakh with the perception and illusion that “when the cat’s away, the mice will play,” i.e., when the landlord leaves their subordinates, they weaken and do what they want. In this situation, they think that they can achieve a certain result.
“Russia always tries to maintain the status quo in all conflicts, but when they try not to take its interests into account, the answer can be harsh. In my opinion, there is a mutually unacceptable position here. The Armenian side says that we should investigate the actions of the peacekeepers and so on. Investigate if you want. Will it be right in relations with Moscow? Won’t it add conflict to those relations? Or is Azerbaijan’s position that it is Purukh, it is Parukh and so on. I think the illusion that Russia is involved in Ukraine and that a good result can be achieved is unreasonable.”
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The director of the Caucasus Institute, political scientist Alexander Iskandaryan said that Azerbaijan is trying to cut a few more layers of sausage and this is not the first time. “In my opinion, this is due to the situation in Ukraine. Indeed, what is happening in Karabakh is not in the center of Russia’s attention. Azerbaijan is trying to seize the opportunity, put pressure, and see where it will work and where it will not. How Russian peacekeepers behave is important. Azerbaijan is trying to check and see where that so-called border is. When I say border, I do not mean geographical location, I mean what else can be done.
In other words, attacking Russian peacekeepers may still be harmful to one’s health, but it is worth trying to attack the people of Karabakh and see what happens. Russia works with diplomatic tools. I know that there is a negotiation process, and there are calls with both sides. Let me be wrong, but I think this will continue and will not be the first nor the last. That strategy will continue, given the situation in the region.”
As for the position of the Armenian side to investigate the actions of the Russian peacekeepers, Iskandaryan said that the Armenian side also uses the tools it has and wants to investigate how Russia reacts to the actions of Azerbaijan.
Hripsime JEBEJYAN
