On March 28, the Article 3 club organized a discussion on “Escalation in Artsakh: From Gas Terror to Local Fighting.” To the question about whether the Armenian side expects concrete steps from the Russian peacekeepers, and how there is an opinion that it can be done with one call, but it does not happen, Sergey Markedonov, a leading researcher at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO) said that the view that the issue can be resolved by a phone call is not only present in Armenia, but also in Azerbaijan. In Georgia, too, it was thought that Putin would start his working day on the issue of Ossetia and could solve the issue with one call.
“We see that Azerbaijan is not only Azerbaijan- it is also a connection with Turkey. Erdogan’s words that he will not join the sanctions against Russia are possible. We have discussed this issue a lot, can Russia do it, can it not… Unfortunately, the Karabakh issue is not a specific issue, for Russia it is not a question of a village, a mountain. I agree that there is an information vacuum because there is no explanation for these actions. We need to talk about such issues. The situation is not as primitive as it seems to people. Do they think that Russia is a masochist and wants to end its peacekeeping mission?”
Political scientist Alexander Iskandaryan also said, “It is obvious to everyone that the Russian peacekeepers can not fight in this situation. The Azerbaijani side also understands that. Now Russia is in a rather difficult situation: it needs Azerbaijan and Turkey, and why would Russia drastically sever ties with them? Exactly where the border crosses, how many meters, to whom Karaglukh belongs, is perceived differently for Russia and Armenia/Artsakh. Russia is doing what it can do, but the tools are not enough. Armenia is trying to strengthen that component – Russia’s influence on Azerbaijan. Will the situation change, no, because experience shows that after the war. It is clear that on Facebook, they can say that Russia is a great empire and it can resolve conflicts alone, but it will not do that. Planes and missiles will not fly here, because there are other programs related to them, of a different scale.”
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According to Iskandaryan, the November 9 document is not an agreement, it is a document related to the post-war situation and Azerbaijan is trying to get the maximum, but the Russian peacekeepers are hindering them. And the Azeris are checking how much they interfere in this situation. Iskandaryan added.
“Great empires are like God, helping those who help themselves. Azerbaijan is doing this to achieve its goals. Azerbaijan’s goals are clear: it wants the Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh to not exist. Azerbaijan is in a hurry, trying to take advantage of the situation. The gas is turned off so that the population can go and make their task even easier. Does this mean that there will be no peace? No, it does not mean that… The question is which two countries’ interests will coincide. It does not happen that the interests of the two countries coincide 100%, but the internal player can move within your interests. Something has to be done on your own. Azerbaijan is forcing Armenia and Artsakh to do what they did not want to do on their own before. There is a de facto martial law in Karabakh. There are statements in Armenia that it is in the interests of Russia, let Russia settle it. Why did Karaglukh suddenly appear in the center of Azerbaijan’s interest? A year and a half has passed since the war, I understand, in this period it was not possible to change the results of the war, but a lot could be done both in that area and on the border with Azerbaijan and Armenia. It does not make sense to think that Russia should do it instead of you in terms of local provocations.”
Hripsime JEBEJYAN
