The reactions of our citizens to the recent events in Artsakh are purely emotional. “The Russians are bad, they want to evict Armenians from Artsakh by cooperating with Turkey and Azerbaijan.” Or vice versa, “the Russians are good, the Azeris deceive them, but they are still with us.” Such judgments can be heard not only from ordinary citizens, but also from “experts” and politicians. Moreover, the first approach (“Russians are bad”) is usually accompanied by pointing to the “good.” “Did you see what a powerful statement Biden and Macron made in support of the Armenian people?”
However, it seems to me that political analysis should not be based on emotional perceptions of who is “good” or “bad,” but on the balance of who is interested in what and who has what opportunity. It is clear that if the Russian peacekeepers leave, then, taking into account the condition of our army and the military and diplomatic “talents” of the Armenian leadership, Artsakh is in real danger of being left without Armenians. In the absence of peacekeepers, Azerbaijan will advance its armed forces and, let’s tell each other the bitter truth, there will be no serious resistance. In time, there may not be any Armenians left in Artsakh, but our population will be told that the “former” is to blame, and the majority of the population will accept that explanation.
But let’s look at the issue from the Russian side. Is that country interested in such a scenario? Peacekeepers are the only lever for Moscow to influence Azerbaijan. Apart from Artsakh, Russia has many other levers to influence Armenia: the 201st military base, gas, electricity distribution networks, nuclear power plant, a number of industrial enterprises, labor migrants, etc. There are no such problems in Azerbaijan. If there are no Russian peacekeepers in Artsakh, Azerbaijan will finally leave the sphere of influence of Russia and become a de facto united state with Turkey. Moscow intervened at the end of the 44-day war (when our defeat was obvious) because it wanted to have a military presence and not allow the Russian-Turkish border to cross Dagestan.
But Russia’s desire is one thing, and real opportunities are another. They have been significantly reduced in the last month, and the reason is Putin’s crazy war against Ukraine. So, it is not ruled out that Russia will have to give in to Turkey and get a more or less acceptable way out of the war with Ukraine.
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Naturally, we are unequivocally interested in Russian peacekeepers staying in Artsakh. Otherwise, the “powerful” statements of Biden or Macron will not help us.
Aram Abrahamyan
