Turkey is constantly pushing Azerbaijan to open a second front in the South Caucasus
“The sitting of the Security Council convened late in the evening proves that the situation is quite serious. The assessment that there can be very big problems is right,” said Grigory Ayvazyan, an expert on Azerbaijan and a historian, in a conversation with Aravot. The March 28 statement of the RA Security Council said, “The analysis of the situation shows that Azerbaijan, trying to find imaginary justifications, is preparing the ground for new provocations in the direction of Nagorno-Karabakh and launching an attack, including accusing Armenia of destructive actions in the peace agreement… the Security Council, bringing the international community’s attention to the possibility of military clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, considers it necessary to launch international containment mechanisms to prevent a new military escalation in the region and ethnic cleansing.”
Aravot asked Grigory Ayvazyan what geopolitical and domestic factors in Azerbaijan could affect the military aggravation of the situation on the borders of Artsakh and Armenia by Azerbaijan. The expert mentioned, “First of all, Turkey is constantly pushing Azerbaijan to open a second front in the South Caucasus. Russia is stuck in Ukraine, or it notices what is happening in Azerbaijan, and it reacts to the situation to some extent. It is not that Russia’s attention is completely diverted from our region. All parties will draw the appropriate conclusions for themselves that the second front is not in the interests of the Russians in the region. Azerbaijan and Turkey always try to use the right moment to advance their policy. Turkey’s goals are not a secret – the creation of a new Ottoman Empire.
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Remember the map given by Erdogan as a gift, in which most of the territory of Russia was represented in the Turkish world … Turkey has permanent interests, and Azerbaijan is an instrument. Aliyev tries to get the maximum while checking our resistance. A lot depends on it. Will we be able to give a dignified answer? Russia will not help us, but itself. It is in Russia’s interests, but it is not the case that Russia should fight for us. The peace agenda does not depend only on us, but on the other side, and Azerbaijan is not constructive. We have not seen it before, nor do we see it now.”
According to Grigory Ayvazyan, Azerbaijan is trying to have a confrontation with Russia, which will have a bad end for Azerbaijan. “Ukraine is a vivid example. It may happen that Russia imposes delimitation and demarcation on Azerbaijan so we will have a democratic republic of Lezgistan and the republics of Talishstan and Artsakh if Azerbaijan continues to work in the same direction.”
In response to the remark that Russia and Azerbaijan signed an allied agreement a short time ago, our interlocutor stressed, “They are not partners, it is a temporary agreement to insure the South Caucasus from provocations, but it is obvious that it did not affect Azerbaijan, it is trying to go on a new adventure. I think Russia will have a corresponding position. Even the Russian media, which tried to maintain seeming neutrality during the war, now openly say that Azerbaijan stabs Russia in the back when the latter is dealing with a potential issue. In Russia, they note that arms are being supplied to Turkey from Turkey and Azerbaijan under humanitarian aid. Azerbaijan has also promised to supply oil and gas to Europe, which is not very desirable for Russia. It is in Russia’s interests to either seize Azerbaijan’s oil and gas reserves or destroy it as an adversary. So, the situation is in Russia’s interests.”
Luiza Sukiasyan
