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“If Armenia continues to do what it has been doing since November 9, 2020, 5-7 years later, we will have a situation when we will have one military city instead of Artsakh: the Stepanakert-Askeran area”: Benjamin Poghosyan

April 06,2022 16:30

“It is the first time in 34 years that we have a situation when Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed on certain points,” during the discussion on “Pashinyan-Aliyev-Michel meeting: What will be put on the negotiating table?” organized by the Media Center on April 4, political scientist Benjamin Poghosyan expressed his opinion, referring to the current stage of the Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiations. He stated that Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed on five points and noted, “Azerbaijan has presented five points, and those points are acceptable for Armenia. Armenia has put forward points that are not public.

According to some clues, it is said that the points put forward by the RA are about the status of the Armenians living in Artsakh and Artsakh. There are at least five points on which Armenia and Azerbaijan agree. If we read, the red thread goes through the idea that the two sides recognize each other’s territorial integrity, internationally fixed borders, and pledge not to take any action that would jeopardize each other’s territorial integrity.”

According to Benjamin Poghosyan, our international partners are pleasantly surprised that the parties have reached such an agreement. “Our international partners usually raise the issue of status and belonging in such matters. The main issue where the parties have the opposite position is the issue of status. In the end, it is possible to reach some agreements.  For the first time in the post-Soviet conflict, we have a situation where both sides declare, at least Azerbaijan, at least publicly, that they are ready to recognize each other’s territorial integrity. No matter how much Armenia says yes, the status of Artsakh still remains. We all understand that it can be a status within Azerbaijan. After all, NKAO had a status within Soviet Azerbaijan. So I think we are in a really interesting situation now, when for the first time in the history of the post-Soviet conflict, both sides have agreed on a status or one of the parties has made its main demands ready to discuss the status issue, except that Artsakh cannot be part of Azerbaijan. That position will continue to be defended by the Artsakh authorities.”

In response to the question of if it is expedient in this situation when there is a problem of ethnic cleansing, he answered, “Azerbaijan is in no hurry anywhere. Since November 9, they have adopted a strategy to do everything possible to have fewer Armenians in Artsakh each following year. If Armenia now signs a peace treaty stating that the parties maintain that Artsakh will be given cultural autonomy, which would be vague, as it could mean that some Azerbaijani language classes will be available in some Azeri schools, and Armenian programs along with Azeri ones on Stepanakert radios. Azerbaijan will not give up if Armenia claims that it is giving up its claims that Artsakh will not be part of Azerbaijan, but at least let’s go back to 1988 with an autonomous status as an administrative unit. In that case, Azerbaijan may not sign an agreement, it may say, let’s negotiate.

But at the same time, it will implement its policy. Azerbaijan will sign an agreement if Armenia signs an autonomy agreement, otherwise Azerbaijan will continue its strategy. In 5-7 years we will have that situation if Armenia continues to do what it has been doing since November 9, 2020. First, people from the villages are concentrated in Stepanakert, Askeran, Martuni, Martakert. From there, they will concentrate in the airspace of Stepanakert. In 5-7 years we will have a situation when instead of the Republic of Artsakh we will have one military city, Stepanakert-Askeran area with its airport, where X number of Armenians will live, who serve the Russian military base. Approximately the current situation in South Ossetia.”

 

Tatev HARUTYUNYAN

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