From time to time I have a question, which at first glance may seem naive. Why do we need sanctions? When adults punish children for something they do, say, put them in a corner, they presumably hope that the child will reconsider their behavior by standing in that corner for 5-10 minutes and will not do anything wrong in the future. The child will be rehabilitate. I’m not sure if this is an effective remedy, but at least in theory it can be reprimanding in some cases.
And why do they punish states? Also for upbringing? Iran, for example, has been under US sanctions for decades. What is the result? Were the Iranians more fond of the Americans, did Iran abandon its nuclear program, did Hezbollah cease hostilities in the Middle East? Of course, this country suffers huge losses, and the people, to put it mildly, do not prosper, but in these decades I have not seen Iranians take to the streets en masse, demanding that their government abandon its nuclear program or become closer to the West. It is impossible to occupy a country like Iran with weapons or suffocate it with sanctions. The only remedy is soft power. You have to prove that life is more attractive in, say, Western Europe than in Iran. If most Iranians find it interesting, that country will change sooner or later.
It is also impossible to occupy Ukraine with weapons. This country is large in size and is very important for the West, which does not want to hand it over to Russia. Soft power is also out of the question in this case, because Russia has nothing to offer Ukraine (as well as other post-Soviet countries) in terms of civilization and technology.
But Western sanctions against Russia are still meaningless. In that country, too, people are ready to live badly, but to be proud that their country has risen to its knees and gained world importance. On the other hand, that pride may seem ridiculous, but I think it is an important factor in the current situation. And that is why, by the way, soft power is not applicable against Russia.
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In the case of sanctions against Russia, there is another nuance, which, for some reason, is rarely talked about. It does not matter to a German, British, or French business owner whether Russia pursues an aggressive policy or a peace-loving one. If these business owners “make big money” with their Russian counterparts, they will find a thousand and one loopholes to circumvent sanctions. And who are the big Russian partners of these business owners? Naturally, Putin’s closest circle. Those whom the Russian president has so-called “appointed” as an oligarch. The West has imposed sanctions on these same people. It seems fake to me.
Aram Abrahamyan
