“It is a pity that Marine Le Pen did not win. If she won, she would have driven out all the migrants, and France would have become a purely French country. Otherwise the Muslims will finally take over France, and that is dangerous for us.” I heard such an opinion around me these days. But decisive action was expected from Marine Le Pen not only in Armenia but also in France itself. In any case, in the second round of the presidential election, the right-wing populist candidate received more than 41% of the vote.
The temptation to look for primitive solutions is really great. Who hinders France? “Naturally, migrants.” Why is the United States in trouble? “Mexicans.” Unlike France, the candidate who played on those primitive instincts won the 2016 US presidential election. The same in Armenia. What did it take for our country to become secure and prosperous? All that was needed was to “reject Serzh.” And, interestingly, today, 4 years later, a significant part of our citizens still thinks so.
There are many reasons for the triumph of populism around the world. Here I would like to mention two. The first is the deep disappointment with liberal values. And it must be said that the liberals themselves have greatly contributed to that. In the post-Soviet space, they did everything they could to equate liberalism with a weak state, disorganization, chaos and the permissiveness of oligarchy. But Western liberals also have their share of guilt. Globally, US military intervention in Iraq (it is no coincidence that the Russian propaganda keeps asking, “We can do it, can we not do it”) and the financial crisis of 2008 were important reasons for disappointment with these values.
The second reason for the spread of populism is the development of information technology. In the early 1990s, there was a turning point in this regard. Prior to that, public opinion was formed by politicians, experts, and journalists. The “ordinary people” had two options: either turn off the TV when they did not like what was being said, or continue watching it. Any user now has an equal opportunity to express their opinion to these experts and journalists, regardless of the quality and level of that opinion. The populist stream has entered the framework of forming public opinion; it is no longer the monopoly of scholars. Any resourceful politician must take advantage of this changed situation.
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When will the era of populism end? The famous American political scientist Francis Fukuyama, who shocked the world in the nineties with his book “The End of History” announcing the victory of liberal democracy, now links the fate of populism with the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war. According to Fukuyama, if Ukraine wins, it will prove that Putin’s populist search for disturbing circumstances abroad did not yield any results. And if Russia wins, it will be the end of history…
Aram Abrahamyan
