In essence, secret negotiations between Armenia-Turkey continue for us. How adequate are the expectations of Armenia and Turkey from those negotiations? Academician of NAS RA, Turkologist Ruben Safrastyan said at the Pastark press club, “The approaches of Turkey and Armenia to what it means to normalize relations are different. From Turkey’s point of view, this is not only a diplomatic relationship and border, but also means that Turkey gets an opportunity to increase its pressure on Armenia. It is very important for Turkey to see Armenia as a state within its sphere of influence.
True, Turkey might not get that right away, and perhaps they understand that very well, but that is what normalizing relations means. There is another circumstance that is possible for today’s Turkey. This is Turkey’s regional policy. Clearly, especially recently, Turkey is pursuing a policy in the region whose geopolitical significance lies in the fact that Turkey views the region as a region where it should be the sole center of power. In other words, Turkey is pursuing a policy of strengthening its influence in the South Caucasus. Of course, this policy has been pursued by Turkey for years and it is not new. But especially after the last Artsakh war, taking advantage of the fact that Russia was involved in the conflict with Ukraine, Turkey is trying to achieve its geopolitical goal in the region at a faster pace. And it is from this point of view that it views the process of normalization of relations with Armenia.
That is, from the point of view that as a result of the process, if it ends as Turkey has planned, it will become the center of a more powerful force in the region, and later the only center of decision-making. As for Armenia’s approaches, they have been formulated since the late 1980s. Armenia wants to have normal relations with Turkey, not good-neighborly, functioning borders. But we see two opposite approaches: what Turkey wants versus what Armenia wants. In fact, Turkey has less interest in issues related to Armenia. The Turkish elite assesses the situation in such a way that Armenia aspires more. And if Armenia wants to normalize relations with it, it must make concessions,” the academician said.
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In response to the question about whether everyone knows Turkey’s real goals towards Armenia, only the current government of Armenia does not understand it, Ruben Safrastyan answered, “It is a difficult question. I still do not understand whether the government really does not understand it or pretends not to understand.”
Ashot HAKOBYAN
