Proponents of the government do not accept the fact that at the start of the 2020 war, during that war and at the signing of the trilateral declaration affirming defeat, the leader of Armenia and the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces was Nikol Pashinyan. (That fact will be recorded in history, not the many excuses for defeat). Opposition supporters do not accept two facts: A) For most Armenians today, the Artsakh issue is not at the top of the list of vital priorities, B) For that majority, the hatred towards Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan surpasses all civic feelings. I am emphasizing that we are talking about the majority of three million Armenians, not the majority of ten million Armenians. If we managed to know the point of view of all Armenians, I think the picture would be the opposite.
My assertion about the opinion of the majority of the population of Armenia, of course, has no direct factual evidence, but the results of last year’s elections, the occupation of Armenia’s sovereign territories by Azerbaijan, as well as the public reaction to the talks with Aliyev, plus my personal and virtual contacts, allow me to come to such a conclusion with near mathematical accuracy.
The response to the next meeting in Brussels (or rather, the lack of response) confirms my view. Pashinyan has no internal obstacles to a) concluding a “peace treaty” that would effectively establish Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over Artsakh (perhaps with an uncertain promise of ethnic Armenians’ security), b) agreeing to Azerbaijan’s demarcation and “unblocking”, and c) signing an agreement with Turkey in a document like the 2009 protocols. The US, the EU and Russia are pushing the Prime Minister of Armenia for all that. It seems that Pashinyan can not avoid it.
But that is not the most cruel truth. I am convinced that these steps will not lead to peace with Azerbaijan and will not improve relations with Turkey. They may postpone the war for some time. The serious danger of resumption of large-scale hostilities will remain even after those painful concessions. I will mention two of the many reasons for that. The enemy sees very well what the Armenian government is like, in particular, with its “organizational skills,” and it also sees the state of our society.
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Aram Abrahamyan
