Moscow’s plans were thwarted in the 90s, when the Armenian side managed to record victories both on the military front and on the diplomatic front, and now those plans have become a reality.
A week ago, when the Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov was in Baku, he demonstrated a complete pro-Azerbaijani position, in fact, emphasizing and highlighting favorable assessments for the Azerbaijani government. Despite the claims from Washington that the US is ready to continue cooperation with Moscow in the OSCE Minsk Group, Lavrov insisted in Baku that this negotiation format no longer exists.
The US Deputy Secretary of State, in an exclusive interview with “Azatutyun” earlier, claimed that despite deep disagreements over Ukraine, the US is ready to continue cooperation with Russia in the OSCE Minsk Group for the peaceful settlement of the Karabakh problem.
Meanwhile, Lavrov recorded in Baku that he did not discuss the issue of the OSCE Minsk Group in Baku at all, and that after the last Karabakh war, the work of that negotiation process remained in the past, and moreover, he clarified that, in fact, for Moscow, the proposals that were discussed years ago have lost their modernity.
Read also
In other words, for Moscow, as for Baku, there is no question of the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, there is no principle of self-determination of peoples, therefore, there are no principles of Karabakh settlement that were acceptable to the co-chairing countries of the OSCE Minsk Group, and they were developing proposals and presenting them to the parties based on those principles.
Now Moscow is focused in a different direction. On an almost weekly basis, Russia repeats that Moscow is ready to support Armenia and Azerbaijan in the lifting of the blockade, although they state that this “blockade will be based exclusively on the sovereignty of the territory of Armenia.”
The next important point for the Russian authorities is the process of demarcation and delimitation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, in which Moscow expresses its advisory “support,” which means that the Russian Federation will keep that process in its hands at all costs, which in turn means to serve the interests of Baku. After all, Moscow has always shown a pro-Azerbaijani attitude even during the initial period of the first Karabakh war. It’s just that Moscow’s plans failed in the ‘90s, when the Armenian side managed to record victories both on the military front and on the diplomatic front, and now those plans have become a reality.
At that time, the Russian side had no choice but to come to terms with the bitter reality for them and start the process of signing a cease-fire, again providing some patronage to the parties, gaining trust from the Armenian side. Anyway, Russia clearly stated a few days ago that it is ready to provide active consulting services to Yerevan and Baku, moreover, according to Lavrov, Moscow has specific proposals and he discussed them with Aliyev. In Washington, they calculated the Russian “smart” game, negotiating separately with Armenia and Azerbaijan, from the point of view of trying to keep the whole process in a tripartite format.
In Moscow, perhaps, they hoped that in Washington they would like to make an agreement with them separately, come to some agreements. However, the Biden administration went further, Washington decided to show the undeniable reality, that is, Moscow does not want the continuation of the OSCE Minsk Group’s activities, as Baku and Ankara do not want it, and Moscow is responsible for blocking the activities of the OSCE Minsk Group. The American Co-Chair of the OSCE Minsk Group talked with his colleagues the other day to discuss the future of Nagorno-Karabakh, the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs of the US State Department informed about this, at the same time expressing regret that the Russian Co-Chair did not accept the invitation.
“We expect that the Minsk Group will continue its work,” the note stated. In other words, Moscow rejected the invitation of the other co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group to sit and negotiate on the future of Nagorno-Karabakh. And in whose interests is it: Aliyev and Erdogan? Therefore, the actions of official Moscow after the 44-day war step by step show their real goals and aspirations on the Karabakh front. Russia has long decided the future of Karabakh. Perhaps Washington will continue the process of “discovering” Moscow, it cannot be ruled out that the USA and France will start working even more actively in the future.
As a result, in the Karabakh process, which side is on which side? Moscow, Baku, and Ankara are on one side, and Yerevan, Washington, and Paris are on the other.
Emma GABRIELYAN
“Aravot” daily, 01.07.2022
