Ali Shamkhani, the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, William Burns, the head of the US CIA, and Sergey Naryshkin, the head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, were in Armenia during the last three weeks. And in Tehran, the spiritual leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned the leaders of Turkey, and then Russia, with almost the same text, that his country will never tolerate the border between Iran and Armenia disappearing. Since in our neighboring country it is more customary to speak with allusions and allegories, the fact that the supreme leader of Iran used the same clear wording twice can speak of two things: 1) In Iran, they are very concerned about the so-called “Zangezur Corridor” project, 2) that project is real and dangerous for Armenia, no matter how much our government says that it is about “only transport routes.”
Now let’s try to balance the forces without blaming anyone and without applying moral categories. It is clear that having a common border for Armenia and Iran is a vital necessity. I think it is also important for Georgia, because it provides an important alternative South-North communication. Naturally, the interests of Turkey and Azerbaijan are exactly the opposite; without a border with Iran, the survival of our state can be questioned (although, of course, that border alone is not a sufficient condition for the preservation of the state). The abolition of the Armenian state, regardless of what sweet or bitter words the leaders of Turkey and Azerbaijan say, is the strategic goal of those two states.
Thus, the position of the 4 countries is clear. If there is a certain balance of power here, then the approaches of the three powerful players – Russia, the USA and the EU – become decisive. There are more uncertainties here, because these players are not limited only to the problems of the South Caucasus, they also take into account Syria (which, by the way, was discussed during the Khamenei-Putin meeting) and Ukraine, as well as gas, oil, sanctions, and all other issues.
Understanding the tendencies of the three players in that “puzzle” is the task of an entire analytical institution. It can be assumed, however, that the EU will perhaps be inclined to go ahead of Azerbaijan. Deputies of the European Parliament can strongly condemn the dictatorial regime in Baku, but Europeans will probably need Azerbaijani gas in order not to get cold in winter.
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The US is probably “leaning” in the same direction, because it has the problem of isolating its enemy, Iran. Russia must want the opposite, but due to the aggressive war started by Putin, the country is in a difficult situation, and in order to improve its position, it can “sell” unfavorable scenarios for us very expensively.
…Political scientists in Armenia, unfortunately, are mostly guided by their likes and dislikes. That is why their analyses are mostly one-sided and emotional.
Aram Abrahamyan
