“Let’s make the South Caucasus a region of cooperation and peace. Let everyone win, and let Armenia win the most,” said Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu in a recent interview, calling upon Armenia. Aravot spoke to the expert of the Orbel analytical center and Turkologist Taron Hovhannisyan about the details of the interview.
– Mr. Hovhannisyan, the Foreign Minister of Turkey said that “after the victory of Azerbaijan, we set a goal to establish lasting peace in the South Caucasus and we are taking steps in that direction.” According to your analysis, from Turkey’s point of view, what does it mean to establish “peace” in the South Caucasus and in this regard, has Turkey actually taken steps during this period?
– I have emphasized many times that the driving force for Turkey in this matter is relations with Azerbaijan. It refers both to the regulation of Armenia-Turkey relations and to Turkey’s policy in the region in general. At least in the last two months, the head of Turkey, the foreign minister and various other officials have expressed this very clearly. Therefore, their main task after the war is to increase their influence, and this applies not only to the South Caucasus, but also to the greater Middle East. We see the policy of Turkey in Syria and Iraq. If we go further, then also in Libya. The contradictions with Greece are also obvious, as well as the fact that Turkey intervenes in the Russia-Ukraine conflict as a mediator, as a military supporter of Ukraine. In general, Erdoğan’s government has a very ambitious, in some sense, aggressively ambitious policy.
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They also increased their influence in the South Caucasus during and after the war. One of the first manifestations of this is the establishment of a ceasefire monitoring center in the territory of Azerbaijan, jointly with the Russians. Now, the support point for Turkey to increase its influence in the South Caucasus is Azerbaijan, with which it has close military-political and economic relations. Azerbaijan’s oil and gas infrastructures pass through Turkey, where it has invested billions of dollars and feeds its aggressive ambitions.
Therefore, when they talk about peace in the South Caucasus, they imagine Azerbaijan’s dominance, which will lead to an even greater increase in Turkey’s influence already in the entire South Caucasus. Turkey also has influence in Georgia, Armenia remains, and they imagine it through the implementation of all the conditions of Azerbaijan. That is the reason why they associate the regulation of relations with Armenia with serving the interests of Azerbaijan. At the moment, Turkey’s policy implies only one-sided support of Azerbaijan’s demands, support for the fulfillment of its conditions. There is no constructive component here.
– Cavusoglu again hinted about the “Zangezur Corridor” and reminded that it is the obligation of Armenia according to the tripartite declaration of November 9. He also sent a question to Armenia: “Tell me, do you really want peace in the region or not?” From the point of view of the future, what are such hints about?
– It is not that Turkey does not understand that such expressions are quite clumsy manipulations. If there is an opening of communications in the tripartite declaration, it does not mean “Zangezur Corridor.” Diplomats understand very well that it is not written “Zangezur Corridor.” As of now, there is no such agreement. The problem here is that Turkey, along with Azerbaijan, is trying to put pressure on Armenia so that the latter is forced to make concessions. Why, because it is a direct way for Turkey to increase its influence in the South Caucasus, to establish a stronger connection with the Turkish countries of Central Asia. Therefore, they continue the course of Azerbaijan. If Azerbaijan wants the “Zangezur Corridor,”they want it too.
They also want a road through the territory of the Republic of Armenia, but which will not keep them dependent on the Republic of Armenia as much as possible. Here, the interests of Turkey and Azerbaijan fully coincide. Therefore, I do not expect that the Turkish government will take a constructive step in this direction. Turkey will support Azerbaijan’s aggressive demands at least until elections are held in Turkey in 2023. Until then, there is no need to expect any change in Turkey’s oppressive policy.
Luiza Sukiasyan
