Prime Minister Pashinyan’s speech in the National Assembly was informative to the extent that it revealed Aliyev’s position in the Brussels negotiations. To tell the truth, from other speeches of the President of Azerbaijan, one could understand what his plans are. It’s just that our authorities sometimes pretended that some kind of “constructive dialogue” was taking place, and once in a while “positive signals” came from Azerbaijan and Turkey.
Such an attitude of the authorities, it seems to me, is wrong for two reasons. First, deceiving one’s own people is not a good thing. Second, over-optimistic statements about the “peace agenda” can raise hopes among the enemy that Armenia is ready to fulfill all of Aliyev’s demands. Thus, such claims about the said “agenda” are a serious diplomatic mistake. By the way, in my opinion, the prime minister’s, to put it mildly, not so mature judgments about buying weapons are equally dangerous. I think they narrow our opportunities to maneuver in the event of a change in the geopolitical configuration.
And so, Pashinyan revealed Aliyev’s real position in the Brussels negotiations.
Accordingly, the President of Azerbaijan: 1/ will not sign a peace treaty, 2/ does not accept the proposals of the Armenian side, 3/ wants a sovereign corridor through the territory of Armenia, 4/ generally wants everything from “Nrnadzor to Yerevan.” Everything I think is accurately described. Only it is not clear why after all that has been stated there is talk again about pushing the “peace agenda” forward. The entire narrative of the Prime Minister’s speech proves that there is no such agenda at the moment.
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Who should impose that “agenda” – the United States and France? The representatives of those countries are very correct, as they say, making “addressable” statements. But they will not use the economic leverage they have against Azerbaijan, oil is important for them, especially now. Unlike the Western states, Russia and the CSTO make “non-addressed” statements (“we call on both sides”), which once again proves that, as in 2016 and 2020, as well as today, if Russia does not encourage, then it does not hinder the actions of Azerbaijan. This should have been taken into account before going to Brussels and Washington.
Perhaps I will not be saying anything new if I claim that the “peace agenda” can only be enforced by the Armenian army, which should be spoken about with love and reverence. Unfortunately, the well-known actions of the government (in particular, in the direction of “appointing the culprits” of the 2020 defeat) do not contribute to the strengthening of our army.
Aram Abrahamyan
