Considering the answer to that question, Armenia should build its future strategy
The current successes of the Ukrainian army in the Russian-Ukrainian war, which started in February 2022, receive controversial assessments in our society. What’s more, they also evoke ambiguous feelings in me. First of all, of course, I am very happy that Ukrainians are successfully resisting Russian aggression and are able to liberate certain parts of their country from the invaders. But on the other hand, it is still not clear what consequences it will have for Armenia. The parallels sometimes drawn by the “pro-Russian” part of my compatriots with the Artsakh war, based on the propaganda thesis that Russia invaded Ukraine in order to protect the Russians, are inappropriate, if not dangerous.
Nothing threatened the Russians in Ukraine, the Russian language is always heard in the center of Kyiv, and it does not seem strange to anyone. A significant part of the Ukrainian army, including high-ranking commanders, are ethnic Russians who, along with representatives of other nations, defend their homeland. Ukrainians have become a political nation. I have already mentioned that this nation includes representatives of various ethnic groups. Armenians, for example, have not become a political nation.
Although 98 percent of citizens living here are Armenians, for us, civic identity is less than ethnic. And in this matter, the role of leaders is great. Zelensky was able to unite the citizens of Ukraine, while Pashinyan, on the contrary, continuing the work of his predecessors, deepened the division. There is a certain euphoria among my compatriots.
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From their posts, one can get the impression that the Ukrainian army is now at the walls of the Kremlin, the only thing left for Putin is to surrender. Actually, the war will last a long time, and the result, in my opinion, will not be the capitulation of one side. But there is a question here, the answer of which I suggest both pro-Russians and pro-Armenians to think about. Why did Putin start the war? I think his main long-term goal is not to take as much territory as possible from Ukraine.
It seems to me that his plan is more ambitious, thus more fantastically unrealistic. Put figuratively, Putin’s goal is to stop time. It seems to him that his country will be saved if it opposes the civilized world, isolates itself, closes itself in itself. Otherwise, according to the Russian President, Russia will collapse and break up.
It’s certainly a crazy approach. And attacking Ukraine is a step in line with that mindset. In fact, it is Putin’s policy that leads to the severe weakening of Russia, if not to its division. But let’s think about whether the process of Russia’s collapse or weakening is beneficial to us Armenians.
If it happens, what will be the consequences, how fast will it happen? Depending on that answer, the government of Armenia and society should adopt, as they say, an evidence-based decision.
Aram Abrahamyan
