The meeting between Catholicos Garegin II and the former presidents of Armenia and Artsakh in the Mother See, for reasons that are not quite clear to me, caused intense negative passions among the supporters of the current government. The main thesis is that all six figures participating in the meeting are agents of the Kremlin and have formed some kind of conspiracy against the sovereignty of our country.
Firstly, it seems to me that the efficiency of the meeting is exaggerated, and secondly, it seems strange to me to talk about so much unity and to condemn a small step towards it. Only one conclusion can be drawn from that event: the situation is really serious, so serious that people with, to say the least, serious problems have decided to exchange opinions.
If you ask me, the meeting would be effective if, at least in a few sentences, an assessment of the situation of Armenia’s borders and Artsakh was given, as well as it was announced that the former leaders participating in the meeting have no ambitions for power. In that sense, I think the only problematic one is Robert Kocharyan, who not only did not give up his ambitions, but also confirmed them during the last meeting with his supporters. Those ambitions are a powerful fight for the propaganda of the government, which notices or pretends to notice Kocharyan’s ears after any disagreement with Pashinyan.
What is left for Russia? According to Thomas de Waal, an expert on security issues, there are two drafts of the peace treaty: Russian (where the Artsakh issue is proposed to be postponed and control of the corridor is placed on Russia) and European (where there is talk of security guarantees for Armenians living in Artsakh). The worst option is what Pashinyan does, according to Thomas de Waal: he promises both sides to sign their version.
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If we acсept that the information is correct and compare the two versions, then, in other conditions being equal, the European version is preferable. But the whole point is that other conditions are not equal. Russia has options to assert itself, including by provoking new conflicts. And their consequence may be the new human and territorial losses of Armenia. Europe does not have serious leverage to assert itself, and even if it has, it will not use it. So I wouldn’t be surprised if former presidents considered the Russian version realistic. This does not mean, however, that they are Russian agents.
In my opinion, the ideal option is not to sign anything while the Azerbaijani troops are in the territory of the former Armenian SSR.
Aram Abrahamyan
