Aravot’s interlocutor is RA Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary, former Artsakh Foreign Minister Arman Melikyan.
– Russian President Vladimir Putin considers the war unleashed by the Turkish-Azerbaijani tandem against Armenia as a border incident, the Russian authorities demand immediate demarcation and delimitation from official Yerevan. In this situation, can we have a profitable expectation for us from the authorities of the Russian Federation?
– Our ordinary citizens are not aware of the unpublished agreements reached by Putin, Aliyev, and Pashinyan behind closed doors. It can only be seen that the course of events has deviated from the provisions included in the tripartite statement signed on November 9, 2020. It is not clear what these deviations are due to, whether official Yerevan refuses to implement some unpublished decisions, or whether the Russians and Azerbaijanis have decided that the tripartite statement can no longer be a basis for their further actions.
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In any case, I would like to remind you that the tripartite declaration is a gentleman’s agreement between three people who have full power in their countries, it has not been ratified by the parliament of any of the three states and, in fact, it does not have the status of a legal document. Violation of the provisions of that statement is unlikely to have legal consequences for the offending party. In this regard, Prime Minister Pashinyan should give the clarifications himself.
– In your opinion, what was the main message of the speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi? Leave the CSTO, we will help you? Have active expectations from the US?
– At the moment, official Washington does not demand to leave the CSTO. I will not be surprised if after some time reports spread that Mrs. Pelosi’s visit prevented the formation of such a situation, within the framework of which the uninterrupted advance of the Azerbaijani armed forces would be used for the voluntary-compulsory incorporation of Armenia into Russia. Currently, the USA also seems to be taking the initiative to organize the Yerevan-Baku negotiation process, which could be of turning point and fateful significance for our entire region.
– How would you assess the impulses coming from Iran, particularly the warnings that Iran will not allow changes in regional borders? And how does Armenia take advantage of these messages, especially since Iranian experts express the opinion that Iran and Washington are against the opening of the Zangezur Corridor?
– Probably, they understand well in Tehran that the wave of instability and violence will now be directed against Iran, foreign influential actors are interested in overthrowing the religious administration and governance of that country. In the current situation, the authorities of Iran are faced with a dilemma and must either turn the country into a besieged fortress and direct all their resources to ensure its impregnability, or initiate pre-offensive military operations in any direction, achieve success and then start political negotiations from a new position. The conclusion of a deal on Iran’s nuclear program would be able to ease the situation for official Tehran, but I consider this option almost impossible to implement now.
– Do you see a danger of large-scale war operations? Unfortunately, but it seems that all the prerequisites for this are in place at the moment.
– Now the freezing of military operations against Armenia is possible either by the efforts of the United States or as a result of the initiation of military operations by Iran.
– At the UN General Assembly, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, expressing his support for the “Azerbaijani brothers,” said: “Even if the clashes that took place in recent days cast a shadow on this good atmosphere, we still believe that the conclusion of a comprehensive peace agreement between the two countries is possible as soon as possible.” Don’t these statements made by Turkey give Azerbaijan a green light to turn to further adventure?
– In all cases, the President of Turkey appears to act as a guarantor and servant of Baku’s interests, but we must keep in mind that Erdogan’s and Aliyev’s paths will diverge at some point. The course of events is such that it allows us to assume the painful overthrow of the President of Azerbaijan in the next one or two years. I have already said that the freezing of military operations against Armenia depends on what factors.
Tatev HARUTYUNYAN
