“Now it is the best time for Armenia to find real allies” – Aravot’s interviewed the head of the “Multinational Georgia” civil movement, Arnold Stepanyan.
– A small group of EU civil observers consisting of 27 people has arrived in Armenia. The EU has been on a civil observation mission in Georgia since the Russian-Georgian war in 2008. What should we expect from this observation mission, taking the civil mandate into consideration, and if we try to find parallels with the Georgian experience, what should we expect from this mission in Armenia specifically, how will it benefit us?
– This is the first, small step the EU has taken, I think that is the way it should be perceived – the first, small but very significant step.
– What do you mean?
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– Firstly, I mean the documentation of the EU’s interests. 27 EU members have sent their representatives to Armenia and this means that it is the first time 27 members of the EU are interested in what is happening on the Armenian borders, and the interest has reached a level surpassing the practically accepted level of announcements. Obviously, none of the members of CSTO are going to send their troops in order to protect Armenia from NATO partisan countries. And the situation here, this small step is taken to fix the political will, firstly. And secondly, to have accurate, reliable information on the situation at the borders. As is known, the EU policies are going to be based on reports from the members of the mission: no more analyzing the information given by both sides. The EU will be on the ground and if any other clashes happen will build their further policy, presumably tougher, on the information that they have gathered.
– While on a meeting with Ararat Mirzoyan, the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, announced that CSTO is also ready to send an observation mission, but a council meeting needs to be held, which needs to be initiated by the invitation of CSTO’s current chairman – Armenia. The Deputy Foreign Minister announced that parallel to the EU observation mission, Yerevan is ready to accept CSTO’s observers. Will there be a problem concerning the simultaneous work of two missions?
– I think the question needs to be directed at official Yerevan and Baku. Personally, I do not find it problematic, as the missions are not going to work together, they are parallel missions anyway. It’s intelligible why the CSTO started acting, and that’s another consequence of the EU’s mission. But the question is – what can and what will CSTO do? They have not done anything that should not have been done, but what else can an agreement on the paper result in? I do not know, but I think the problem is not the CSTO, it’s Russia. Russia tries to place its observers in the area using CSTO channels as they know they are losing their positions, and naturally, they will do anything to save them. But again, what else can they do? They cannot do anything and probably don’t want to do anything anymore.
– Anyway, there is an impression and concerns expressed that the interests of the West and Russia are in a very dangerous competition stage and a factual process of demonstrativeness is about to start. What developments are bound to happen?
– Sure, it is pretty clear, and I think it is about time… I called everything happening before all of this in Armenia leaking schizophrenia because everything would have resulted in a collapse. This was bound to happen in 3,5,10 maybe 20 years, but it was bound to happen and there were several signs of that – the decaying economic situations, high rates of emigration, lack of opportunities to develop when completely different things are happening. It is apparent, that in this case, sooner or later, a tragedy was to occur, and it would not be the last tragedy Armenia would face. The 44-day war in Artsakh was not the worst tragedy Armenia faced, worse things might happen if nothing is changed. Rapid and thorough changes need to be done. And the first step that needs to be done is changing allies. Changing the allies, that are not practically allies anymore. We need to search for real allies.
– So the geopolitical orientation in Armenia needs to change?
-Without any doubt. At first, it can be done, Robert Kocharyan loved to talk about this, but he didn’t use this policy, with complementarity. That’s a way to start, leaving room for the opportunity to work with others as well, and considering the time is very short, it is necessary to work more actively with adherents from the West. Georgia might be a good bridge. I know that the Armenian government and Armenia overall have close relationships with a number of western circles, including historically developed ones, but Georgia has gone through a certain path involving integration, and the issue here is in the relationships rather than the steps Georgia made. I think we need a closer collaboration with Georgia.
– An obstacle to the Armenian-Georgian relationship became closing the transit route for weapon supplies during the 44-day war.
– Why would they think in Armenia that Georgia would allow the weapons transition?
– It is an ally country and a neighbor, and as you said, the Armenian government has a good relationship with the Georgian government.
– Azerbaijan is also a neighbor, and Turkey is as well. We are even economically dependent on Turkey. Armenia has high expectations of Georgia, on an emotional level, which are not backed up factually. So, if they expect such a move from Georgia, it would be done at the expense of their independence and interests, so if such an expectation exists, you need to realize that Armenia needs to make the equivalent move for Georgia as well. It should also be taken into account that Armenia is in a completely different geopolitical union today. In addition, there are parties in Armenia today that still claim Javakhk as an Armenian territory. Also, the economic ties between Armenia and Georgia are almost nonexistent. Moreover, in this sense, Armenia is dependent on Georgia, not vice versa.
– Some analyses were done that the core reason is Armenia being a member of OSCE.
– That is one of the reasons. Armenia is Russia’s military ally, while the Russian attitude towards Georgia is apparent, Russia is an invader of Georgia and not only. Moreover, Nagorno-Karabakh was occupied by Russia, and everything happening is a game Russians play to place their peacekeepers there. This was considered for years and the Armenian government resisted that, despite their pro-Russian attitude.
Interview by Nelly GRIGORYAN
