1/ Russia has not closed the corridor, as pro-government propaganda claims. On the other hand, in modern language, “doesn’t have the guts” to open it (although it is the country’s direct responsibility); Russia is afraid that the “forceful” opening will turn into a conflict and does not want to spend military and political resources on it. Against the background of apparent failures in Ukraine, the Kremlin does not consider it appropriate (at least for now) to open a second front. In addition, Putin possibly has some “trade” with Erdogan.
2/ Britain is interested in the depopulation of Artsakh, not only because it is the desire of its oil partner Azerbaijan. The country has direct interests in the mining industry of Artsakh and started relevant negotiations with Baku during the 2020 war, calculating that after the victory of Azerbaijan, there will be no Armenian residents in Artsakh and, even more so, Russian peacekeepers, and favorable conditions for business will be created.
3/ It doesn’t matter to the EU whether Armenians will live in Artsakh or the region. Today’s concern of that organization is the warming of the winter, and after the deterioration of relations with Russia, the EU needs “reliable partner” Azerbaijan’s fuel.
4/ It is also the same for the USA: will Armenians be in this territory or not? The pain and suffering of that country is Iran, as well as the weakening of Russia’s influence in the South Caucasus.
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5/ The authorities of Armenia do not want Artsakh to be depopulated, of course, but they understand that this is not the problem on which the “strength” of their seats depends. If the masses elected them after the defeat in the war and 4,000 casualties, they would continue to support them even after having 120,000 refugees. Therefore, there needs to be more motivation for them to deal with this problem.
But the behavior of the rulers of Armenia and the four players mentioned above would be different if they received appropriate impulses from the Armenian society and the Diaspora. Opposite impulses are heard after the 2021 elections. If the majority of citizens elected the defeated prime minister, it implicitly means that this majority has come to terms with the defeat. If several dozen people respond to Artak Beglaryan’s initiatives and no one comes forward with a similar step, then, the fate of Berdzor Corridor and compatriots in trouble, is not of interest to most of the society.
Imagine if there were 100,000-strong demonstrations in Yerevan nationwide, without any internal political demands, only with the need to open the Berdzor corridor, if powerful demonstrations took place in the Diaspora. The world would have a different, more favorable opinion about us, and there may be circles that would like to help us.
ARAM ABRAHAMIAN
