Several sides have already discussed canceling CSTO military exercises planned in Armenia. If the reason given by Prime Minister Pashinyan is that we would provoke Azerbaijan with those military exercises, then it should be perceived as a concession to the enemy. I’m not against concessions; if you get something in return, you achieve some result. Ilham Aliyev’s press conference checked the effectiveness of this concession, where the President of Azerbaijan talked about “holding” the Armenia-Azerbaijan border where it suited him and threatened to open the “Zangezur Corridor” by force. Therefore, if it was a step toward advancing the “peace agenda,” it can be said that no progress was made.
Knowing Pashinyan’s character, I can assume that maybe canceling military exercises was purely an emotional decision to make Russia understand something. Approximately like this. “Ah, you don’t protect my sovereign territory; don’t you open the corridor of Lachin? I’m upset with you; I won’t do any military exercises.” This way, a child can extract candy from his parent: “Okay, dear, don’t be upset, we’ll give you what you want.” But politics doesn’t work like that: you can’t sell your resentment on anyone; you need more tangible things.
But there may be a more far-reaching calculation here: Pashinyan will “send off” the Russians from here and invite other sponsors. Theoretically, it is a good option; Russia does not behave like an ally. The only “disadvantage” to that option is that it’s impractical. The American or French troops are not ready to come here and replace the Russians.
There are many reasons for this, and one of them is the following: Unlike Armenia and Russia, the United States and its allies are governed by strategic plans developed over several years and decades. It has advantages: decisions are not changed every minute, as in the last 4.5 years in Armenia. Such an approach also has disadvantages. When specific drastic changes occur (for example, Russia’s attack on Ukraine), the American state machine cannot react quickly. Otherwise, things would be much better for the Ukrainians.
Read also
But, no matter whom we expect support from, Russia, the USA, France, or Iran, they will support us only if they see that we are ready to fight, fight, make sacrifices, and not surrender. Ukraine itself is an excellent example in that sense.
Aram ABRAHAMYAN
