The eighth economic survey of the Eurasian Expert Club, “Armenia’s economy in 2022″, was recently published in the context of our country’s membership in EAEU” on the topic. According to the assessment of the members of the Eurasian expert club, in 2022, we had a severe inflow of investments in Armenia. Only from Russia, it was more than 4 billion dollars. Doctor of economics professor Tatul Manaseryan presented these data in the press hall of “Sputnik Armen.” However, the economist needs help integrating these funds into the economy of Armenia.
The Russian-Ukrainian war had a positive impact on the economy of Armenia, as a result of which we had an influx of about 300,000 resettlers to Armenia. According to the expert, one of the upcoming problems of the government should be the question: what will we do when the resettlers return? He added that there should be reconciliation between Russia and Ukraine.
According to him, the number of relocators in Armenia is 200-300 thousand, 10 percent of our population. “As a result, according to official data, we closed the year with an economic activity index of 14.2 percent. Several factors had an impact on the indicator of economic activity. One is the increase in consumer prices, which must be distinguished from inflation. It is the average price of about 500 products. Also, we cannot fail to notice that despite the double-digit economic growth, we had an increase in poverty.
Another critical factor is the devaluation of the Armenian dram, and it is also quite crucial that not only a 14.2% increase in the economic activity index was recorded, but also, if we compare monthly, for example, a 21.5% increase was recorded in December compared to November, which is a serious indicator. “. According to official statistical data, we closed 2022 with an economic activity index of 14.2 percent. However, only 0.4 percent growth was recorded in the agricultural sector.
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“In other words, even under these conditions, the export of agricultural products from Armenia to EAEU countries has increased by two digits. Membership in EAEU has provided us with quite a serious opportunity. And especially the finished products were exported. The indicator of the turnover of goods has approached 100 percent within the framework of EAEU. Such an indicator is unprecedented.” Speaking of 2023 forecasts, Tatul Manaseryan said that Fitch’s forecast is within 6.4 percent, which is quite a significant and essential indicator for Armenia.
However, the Eurasian Expert Club is convinced that more can be achieved as a result of some consistent and purposeful work. According to the economist, most of the positive trends in economic development will continue in 2023, except for relocations. According to his assessment, Armenia should strive to make the most of the opportunities provided by the EAEU because any other country does not give the privileges that EAEU delivers, especially since Armenia exports ready-made products to EAEU member countries, not raw materials. Of course, this does not mean that the government should not think about the diversification of the economy.
Nelly GRIGORYAN
